TugHillMatt

Ha! If "this" is what winters are going to be for the next couple decades, I may actually take my wife up on moving to the south. An inch of slush that melts in a couple hours followed by days of dreary 40 degree rain is.........

The most discouraging thing about this early week's model runs are the clear portrayals that we just can't shake the bloody ridging over the Central and Eastern US.

The GFS really wasn't far off from being more wintry this weekend. It doesn't make it a huge cutter. It makes it our typical front-end mix ending as some rain. I think that's going to be our pattern/systems for the winter. 1 to 3 inches of slush/mix to rain showers...then mild around 40 until the next one comes through.

There's a LOW off the New England coast and the ONLY places getting snow in the Northeast are extreme Northern New England. LOL. Multiple Lows ruining the whole setup.

Knitting pretty white jackets that cross and contain your arms?

Yeah, then it gets "cold" and dry. Not much lake effect. Then you can see the ridge trying to push back in. If we don't see anything different by the end of next week, I will be about ready to call it another dud of another winter. Who knows...we could get a month of good winter like last year, but a month of REAL winter just doesn't do it for me. I guess this is what our winters have become.

Looks like you have to be a few miles away from taint to see any snowfall. Otherwise, it's shredded by dry air.

Looks like the area of PA that was supposed to get snow, according to the models last night, is getting nothing. Congratulations to you guys in the lower LSV and Ridge/Valley region.

Where I am at in Central PA all the poster in the Susquehanna Valley are reporting moderate snowfall with ground coverings. Here? Heavy VIRGA. Barely a flurry. Lol

Hey now. Don't be dusting your way to the Golden Snow Booger award. That has my name on it.

VIRGA...with occasional flurries in Danville.

Coastal Mid-Atlantic, New York.

If that Low formed the way it did as shown on the CMC, that would be my first experience since moving here with a Lake-Enhanced snow band brought in on WNW winds from a Low sitting off the New England coast. Those are the events that help Syracuse get that Golden Snowball.

Yeah, everything has to be taken with such a grain of salt. The models and the pattern have been rather ugly for exciting/substantial snowfalls. Sort of "don't really accept it until it's actually happening" these days. Hopefully we can work towards a better outcome than what the 0Z runs are showing for almost all of us this New Year's weekend.

I'll never forget seeing all the houses with tarps covering the roofs and boards on windows....everywhere you turned your head! Thankfully both of them had their cars in the garage.

Canadian follows suit with the GFS in giving us a Grinch New Year's Day. Man, if that happens...Grinch Thanksgiving, Grinch Christmas, and Grinch New Year.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that between Saturday and Tuesday all of us will be seeing some snow. Based on past trends, as Syrmax alluded to, I think the first one being a cutter and then a secondary forming somewhere between the Apps and the coast is the most likely outcome. If the primary is strong, it will cut. We still have that SE ridge. If it's weak, it will be flatter and we will get another little snowfall/mix/rain, with the secondary (if it happens) forming farther south and not affecting us much. I do think one of our better widespread lake effect opportunities comes early next week as well.

I was not in town, but I came down shortly after to visit and was shocked at how destructive it was. Pretty much every house in my parents' neighborhood had to get new siding/roofing/windows/landscaping... I couldn't believe all the holes and cracks in all the buildings! I'll have to find some of the pictures my parents took and share a few of them on here. It was definitely a season of Insurance companies and construction crews...job security!

I actually think BUF is being too conservative with that call. The models are showing these systems breaking through a bit more within 1 to 2 days of an event. Hence, the "surprises" we keep seeing. Some of New England has been able to get more than the models were showing. In addition, the models have actually been too warm. So, I think we are already seeing some changes in the pattern and lots of errors/struggles in the models even during the events.

Thanks! The way this winter has been, a 2.5 inch snowfall will even seem like a large snow for me! Hopefully it comes and I can enjoy a nice snowy walk with my dad.

The RAP just came in with a nice little 1 to 3 inch snowfall for you guys in Southern New England tomorrow night into Tuesday. (It doesn't look like you guys post many snow maps on here, so I will refrain from doing so. )

Eh, we've still got the sneaky system for tomorrow and the sneaky system for Tuesday night to get through before Thursday's sneaky system. lol For as crappy as it has seemed, we have still managed to see snowflakes and small coverings the past couple weeks. Weeks that have looked like absolutely no snow could fall have turned into weeks with pennies thrown out to us. This week looks to continue that theme.

The ultimate Western PA runon sentence: "Before I seen you, I went to the #$@#@$ store in Picksburgh with my Stillers pajamas on and filled up the #@$#@@ buggie with Jimmies, pop, Yuengling, and mountain pie @#$#@ to eat around the #@@$#@#@ fire tonight with you #@#@@!."

I lived in DuBois for several years back in the 2000s...some of wife's family and our friends still live there. We went back a couple weeks ago to have a long lunch with her dad at Hoss's (I LOVE their salad bar). Anyways...first thing the waitress said, "What can I get yinz to drink?" On the outside I smiled...on the inside I cringed. I knew I was in Western PA again...

0Z runs definitely looking better for some front-end snow tomorrow. Good run for Mid and Upper Susquehanna Valley. Check this one out: