TugHillMatt

Fog really is such a major part of the Pennsylvania climate. I have been especially reminded of this during my week back here. Sure, there was fog SOMETIMES when I lived in Michigan and occasionally where I'm at in Upstate New York. But all the hills, valleys, their topography, rivers, and radiational cooling make for the perfect environment for fog in PA.

Thanks for sharing those Canadian Ensembles. That looks like the much more workable solutions in which I was hoping. You can see that the ones that cut are at a much sharper trajectory of 35 to 45 degrees and stronger with heavier snowfall, while the flatter solutions have about a 20 degree trajectory and are weaker. Going along with the theme of this season, I might actually go with the flatter, weaker look over the more potent cutters. With the subtle shifts occurring in the pattern (ex: Chicago getting snowfall this week), this very well may end up being our best Synoptic shot of the winter to date.

Yep. It's high pressure to the north vs. the SE Ridge. That makes this quite a tricky event as just subtle changes can lead to much different outcomes. I give up on any notion of a secondary "saving" us. Waves are moving so quickly that there just isn't time. We hope the Saturday system gets pressed to a flatter trajectory and we snow/mix or otherwise we rely on lake effect scraps.

Welp, the Canadian says, "You thought you were getting snow, eh? Think again, ya hosers!"

We're talking about the primary low for Saturday, not the secondary.

The Icon doesn't agree, but that's not saying much. It wouldn't take much for the NAM to start heading in that direction. It's hard to go against what has been the main track for several winters though.

Be careful calling her an "odd duck." She might quote you and try to start a battle with you in their little fight club they've got going there. lol...it's ridiculous.

So I'm just going to ignore the stupid little tongue of "lesser snow" that reaches out into Syracuse and focus on the big picture....

Typhoon Tip from the New England Subforum fell into the cesspool trap and got himself warned after going there.

Lol... "We have not had 3 winters in a row with below average snowfall. Next winter will be better." You used stats to cover this though, so it's not your fault the winters suck. It's mine.

LOL. But, but, but... @BuffaloWeatherpromised this winter would be better!

Yep. They've been stalking and harassing individuals from the Upstate NY subforum...and then hide behind "you were using hate speech" when really the adult members in our subforum are quite capable of respectful discussion. Wxtrix likes to quote/copy and paste any non-weather related items from banter threads on there and cause drama. Then a couple of the mods support it and name call if you question things. Avoid that toxic cesspool where they intentionally pull people in to bully them...and then laugh when they push people to the limit of typing something that leads to a warning or being banned.

Thinking we're going to get skunked by two Lows this weekend. Primary too far north and secondary too far south. If we could get everything to press south 100 to 150 miles this weekend, we would have a better shot with the primary. 0Z Nam shows the sizzle of the Cuse sucking that Low right in.

I'm curious to know what that microclimate averages in snowfall. When I lived in the Dubois area, considerably farther south...driving up Clearfield mountain on Interstate 80 was always like going into the twilight zone. It's about the same elevation as your cabin and the weather and snow were always more extreme up there.

Ice? You've found it?!? Where???

The one thing most of them have in common is they either miss to the north or the south, with the big ol' screwhole through much of NY.

If you could only see the amount of times I roll my eyes at the sizzle bubble that shows up in the Cuse on models AND in real life...

I hate to say this, but what this shows here has been THE track the past decade. Compared to normal Southeast Michigan has been doing quite well compared to almost everywhere else in the East. Many of the systems have ended up on this path.

GFS is trying.... From Hours 84 to 90 it takes the Low from Pittsburgh to Philly to......somehow Binghamton. lol

Build up the excitement of winter maybe actually arriving and then....... Thereafter...generally dry and milder weather is expected for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The pattern was indeed different then. We were coming into the grips of an increasingly -PNA. A cutter now would do different things.

Low looks like it wants to move towards Jamestown in a more west to easterly direction. What is it with that place? Do these lows get a Coke fix in Jamestown?

Eh, I don't know. I'm getting sick of 40 and rain. lol If we have to get a big cutter and temps in the 60s with it in order to shake the pattern up to something good...give me the torch 60 for a day or two.

Huge difference...especially since NAM usually goes farther north as we get closer. Not this time. Still not good enough for us...but getting closer if we can get the cold air to press in. 12Z 18Z