TugHillMatt

The Kuchera maps probably aren't the best option for this system. Perhaps the ratios will be better as the deeper cold moves in.

Looks better through what is most of this event. But, the Rap does change "rap"idly!

I wish we could get the SE ridge to cooperate with us this winter!

Hey, it's just been an awful run for the past several years. Probably the worst patterns for Upstate New York...and even more so for Syracuse. I don't really know what the heck is going on, but it's been like a broken record. I know it's not ALWAYS going to be like this. (At least I hope not). Some of the things I mentioned are legit, they've just been more extreme than usual. But, again, what HASN'T been more extreme than normal?! Mild winters are no good for lake effect towns that get their averages from robust lake effect snow events. You SHOULD expect 130 inches...that's the normal! lol... but coming from NYC, most winters would still seem much better. Even the last two garbage winters at least had a few weeks of decent winter that still outshines NYC's winters.

Looking at temperature obs across the Western NY, it looks like mid to upper 30s are the coldest at the moment. Mid 30s where rain has started...

Rain to dry slot to mix to downsloping to scattered NW wind lake effect snow showers to snow melt 24 hours later = dusting to 1 inch snowfall = Syracuse new snowfall normals

Nice guys. Looks like you had a good, solid snowfall out there! Finally, right!?!

Looking like a solid week for the Western NY crew. Enjoy!

Oh, and I'm baaaaaaaaaaaaaack! Sizzlecuse was actually the "coolest" temperature on the whole trip back from PA. It was in the mid 50s the entire trip and by the time we came down the hills into the Cuse it dropped to the upper 40s. Latitude ftw for once!

Welcome back! Yep, as you can see...this area is always on the line whether it be lake effect snow line, rain/snow line, downsloping from the Tug line. For one of the snowiest cities in the country, it can be quite maddening how we get there.

I am actually hoping for some sleet cover tomorrow before the snow. That will take longer to melt during the couple-day thaw that comes 1 day after a real 24 hours of winter.

I agree. I don't blame them for being extra cautious. Many of the events this year have underperformed. I was a bit amused with BGM's Winter Weather Advisory for their CNY counties...but it gives a head's up to holiday travelers and can be adjusted up or down pretty easily. My little area actually has the best chance of their entire area to have the most wintry outcome.

I almost always post the maps I discuss, but don't want to clog the sub with even more maps. So I am intentionally NOT posting every map I mention. Don't make that your New Years Resolution. We already have enough people puking up nasty things all over social media.

Thanks, although I am not sure why you posted it? I said I liked the look of it. I saw it already. Maybe to show it's not showing downsloping? Many of the models are suggesting it, so it's just something to possibly be prepared for in a very localized area.

I am liking the look of the 12Z HRRR. Showing that flatter look I've been talking about. I am a bit concerned about the downsloping off the Tug that many models are showing. That northeast wind can be a problem, especially for Oswego county.

@BuffaloWeatherGreat discussion and overview!

Lol...I didn't even look at the thread title until seeing your comment.

Happy New Year, all! New Euro run looks better in spreading the wealth for much of Upstate. I'm on my way back tomorrow, so we shall see if it's enough to contain "the force" as he returns...

It looks great and looks to get Onondaga county with a good batch of snow...but it goes from this... to this.... Big fricken hole...over....you guessed it. "You can't make this up..."

For sure! I went from a high school that had the WORST football team in the state while I was there (Penn Manor 2000 grad) to Penn State whose football team was AWFUL while I was there. (graduated 2005). I have about as much luck with football teams as I do with above average snowfall winters wherever I go. lol

The ARW2 is the farthest south model so far though. Perhaps too far south.

I sense there could be a narrow zone of some long-duration sleet in there...roughly the Thruway corridor just south of Batavia to Syracuse.

The very slight shifts make a huge difference when you're right on that tight gradient...like stupidcuse always is.

Thanks, guys! Wearing my Penn State hoodie as I type. Yas...yinz...yous guys...have a great group!

Lol..The Rgem bailed on us and jumped north.