TugHillMatt

Just think... Eric over near Albany got more than you did... Too soon?

I'm not going to say anything about whining... lol. I thought it was a bit premature of a reaction though, as lake effect tends to start later than predicted. Thanks for asking and for your comment.

Happy Lake Effect Snow day, Buffalo crew! Enjoy!

0.0 inches.

I could see us maybe even getting some leftovers from Lake Erie on those strong winds.

Enjoy!

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It definitely looks like more of a westerly wind right now. I could see those strong winds shredding the bands and sending them further inland than usual.

Same here. I see the HRW models and the NAMs are showing the Friday lake effect snows across SOUTHERN Onondaga county. At least the Rgem has northern Onondaga, but the lake precip. looks weaker and weaker with every run. I give up.

If we could have gotten this system in the northern stream to go AWAY, this southern system would be able to actually give us something. Dusting here, dusting there. Hopefully the lake provides for CNY.

Does anyone know what the actual average snowfall is for Batavia? It seems like they get lake effect more often than one would think. I have found somewhere around 80 inches for an average.

Lots of short-lived bouts of cold and then it milds right back up. Perhaps we can get more persistent cold at some point.

BUF NWS for southern Lake Ontarioans: Lake effect snow parameters become favorable for snow growth, with equilibrium levels rising towards 8-9K feet, with ample moisture located through the snow DGZ. The snow off Lake Erie may be more multi banded and focused upon the Chautauqua Ridge, though a skinny band of snow from an upstream connection to Lake Huron is possible towards western Chautauqua County. The snowband off Lake Ontario will likely be singular with an upstream connection possible to Georgian Bay. This singular band will have the potential to yield snowfall rates of at least an inch per hour off Lake Ontario. A look at the upper air pattern, the position and height of a trough at both 850 hPa and 500 hPa lies very close to events that have brought warning criteria snow in the past southeast of Lake Ontario. One of the drawbacks right now is wind direction. The band of snow off Lake Ontario, starting near the southern Tug Hill early Friday morning will quickly drop southward towards the southern Lake Ontario shoreline once the upper level trough passes across the region. However the deepening surface low now off the New England coastline may draw this band of snow eastward some. If the band of snow does oscillate, snowfall amounts will be much lower than if it could lock on to one location. Off both lakes advisory level snows are likely, with higher and more widespread snow totals off Lake Ontario. For now will continue to mention this event in the HWO

Newest update from BGM NWS. When did SW Onondaga become the snowbelt?! At least I am in the "Western" part. They're thinking a more conservative advisory. Friday morning the coastal storm exits early stage right. The low level flow shifts from north to northeast as the upper level trough moves east of our region. A deep northwest flow sets up during the afternoon into the evening. The incoming air mass will be cold with high temperatures mostly in the 20s. The moisture level drops below 10k feet midday but the 2 to 3k foot dendrite zone stays at the top of the moisture level. Several inches of snow is likely from Cayuga and Onondaga Counties southeast to Madison, Chenango, and Cortland Counties. Western and southern Onondaga county will get the most snow.

Sure! The Lake Michigan shoreline has a FANTASTIC state park system, along with community parks (where you can often park for free and then go swimming in the lake.) The natural sand dunes that exist along the shoreline are a sight to see. During the winter, the way the wind blows, the ice structures that form along the lake (different every year) are phenomenal. The communities along the lake also really invest in having celebrations and festivals throughout the year. (See Holland ,Grand Haven, etc...) As far as pace of life....when my wife and I went back to visit this summer, we were reminded of the "Michigan Goodbye." You start saying bye and then an hour later you're still enjoying each other's company. Relationships have more priority than here. New Yorkers, in my opinion, are uptight and prioritize tasks and time over relationships. People here are also stand-offish. Very generous...but have walls up. That's tough for a relational couple like us. It just takes more time...and people here apologize to us ALL the time if they feel like they are "wasting our time" or "sharing too much." We are always saying, "NO. That is what we want. RELAX." If we hadn't moved here to be closer to family, we would move back to West Michigan in a heartbeat. P.S. I love this subforum and the New Yorkers on here!

I've been watching the radar and thinking about my second home of West Michigan. It's been a while for you guys. Enjoy!

The only thunder you will hear is when Buffwx starts up his tank to go 'a storm chasin'!

Nice! Yeah, I lived for 9 years in the Norton Shores/Spring Lake areas, on the other side of Muskegon from White Lake. I am indeed used to more weaker "spread the wealth" lake effect events as opposed to the single bands that New York's belts seem to get. Hopefully, this upcoming week is one of those more spread the wealth events around here that can really add up over days. Although West Michigan gets a bit less snow than our belts, the recreational environment is something I dearly miss. Oh, and the much more relaxed pace of life!

Ah, my old stomping grounds. I sure do miss the beautiful West Michigan lakeshore. They do fantastic when a low ushers in cold air on a SW wind. That's the glorious lake enhancement off of the wide part of Lake Michigan.

Thanks, I think so too. Though, with the amount of burns and fails the past several years, one is bound to be skeptical. I could see it being a 6 to 12 inch event if we can get the moisture for enhancement.

The Synoptic Snow Shield starts here and stretches to the NY borders.

Well, the lakes better start providing...because the bloody synoptic pattern sure isn't.

Lies.

I don't know why, but I found their use of the words "lucky enough" amusing. I think it's pretty clear they're finding this "pattern" ridiculous as well.