TugHillMatt

Meso low!!?!? Time to go Snow band a'chasin! Buffwx, got a boat?

Can you guys have a similar discussion on who will jackpot in Central New York tomorrow? I can't wait to read this...

It's actually super annoying, because it's what is preventing us from getting any good synoptic snows. That northern Jet isn't allowing anything to move north and the southern jet isn't allowing systems to push down from the north (like a clipper pattern). So we're stuck in this stupid in-between area where nothing goes. Lake effect is our only hope for the time being.

I love seeing the 6 to 12 inches, but am very cautious. It could translate over to you if the wind is more WNW. Or it could totally miss me even if the winds are too NWly. Lake effect snow is soooo wishy washy because the slightest wind change can lead to a totally different place getting hit. You can see that with today's event around the Buffalo area.

You guys are getting that because of what's left of the Low that went over the Upper Great Lakes. SW winds are flowing in from that.

Great to read that you finally got the great band!

Pretty quiet in here now. All the Buffalo guys are either chasing it, shoveling it, or piling a half inch into piles that won't melt Sunday (poor @lakeeffectkid383)....

With the snow they've been having since and Thompson Park being at a higher elevation, there's probably quite a bit more now.

Wow, Watertown has really been hit today. Check out the snow depth above the bench seats in the background:

That band looks pretty impressive even up into Orleans County. The Niagara Frontier has had a better start than many this season.

Do you know how much they got in that particular spot? It's tough to tell. 8 inches?

Checking out the Elmwood cam. it looks like super-fluffy snow out there in Buffaloland. Beautiful!

BGM NWS still asleep on the job with a map from like 3:30 this morning, while BUF keeps rollin them out.

Recent Rgem is still showing the WNW flow with a nice jackpot right by you of 6 inches. I just might have to do a "Delta-Buffalowx style chase" to your hood for that lollipop. We gotta show these guys the seriousness of snow up to our ankles.

I feel bad (only teeny tiny bit) high-jacking the "Lake Effect Snow" thread, but felt our shot of Lake Effect Flurries wasn't really worth a whole separate thread...so, here we are...looking for snowflakes...yelling at the skies...

Most recent disco from BGM NWS. Check out the bolded print. Take it to the bank....bahahahahahahaha. Snowdesertcuse. As the storm passes Friday morning strong cold air advection sets up setting off lake effect snow. The low level flow this time is from the northwest so CNY will be better involved. Again this will be a quick shot as high pressure and a ridge builds in late Friday night and Saturday morning with sinking dry air. 850mb temperatures fall to -17c. Moisture extends up to 10k ft with the dendrite zone in the middle of it. The problem here is the low level flow keeps shifting so a solid band does not set up for long. A band looks best in the afternoon and evening across Onondaga and Madison Counties. Combined with the snow will be strong gusty winds causing blowing snow. 2 to 5 inches but northwest Onondaga could get a little more.

I don't know what to think for us tomorrow/tomorrow night. BUF is most zealous with that snow map, BGM has 3 to 5 inch advisories for us, the most recent NAM and mesos have the band even FURTHER SW of us over the eastern Finger Lakes (seems to be the norm anymore)... Perhaps they're going with Rgem, which we we know is the best lake effect model. Plus, the bands often end up more north. I sure hope we can get that 6 to 8 inches, but I'm extremely skeptical considering the many ways things have gone down while living here.

They've had quite a few excellent events the past decade there. SW wind has been pretty common.

I got a Lake Erie accumulation this morning of about 1,000 flakes per acre...and then the sun came out and melted them all.

Areas that rely on a northerly component for the wind have not done well the past several years. We just can't get that COLD air coming from the north.

I'm not even looking to Monday and Tuesday. Looks like it's becoming another disappointment. Models seem to again be going towards a SW Onondaga hit for tomorrow. I wonder when this 3 year crapfest will draw to a conclusion?

Oh! Let me tag along! The Buffalo crew will LOVE that.......................................