TugHillMatt
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Everything posted by TugHillMatt
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That's why I was thinking we could get 6 to 12 inches total by Tuesday. I just happened to check the updated "point and click" and here is it what it reads: Sunday Night Rain, snow, and freezing rain, becoming all snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. West wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches.
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If that doesn't produce a synoptic snowfall at some point, we might have to start questioning whether it's possible to get a snowstorm here with no taint.
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Good point. Hopefully we can get a layer of ice on top of our snowpack tomorrow to preserve our snow and create a nice base for whatever falls.
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We will get our best shot as the band drops south Monday evening. As you call it, "Ye old broom" effect.
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Most definitely. That is actually quite common when a Lake Effect Snow Warning is issued for the county. Often times, the NWS will specify "Highest Amounts North of the Thruway." When we hit warning amounts, often Syracuse city will come in with high-end advisory amounts.
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Historically, it seems these events still produce for us. Obviously nowhere near what Central Oswego county is going to get...but perhaps a few rounds that add up to that 6 to 12 inches.
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Yes, it happens. However, it's more common the further north you go in Onondaga county. We're more susceptible to get in on the solid band (for example, the one wolfie's going to get) as it swings south. The further south it goes, on a NW flow, the main band splits up into less intense multi-bands. The best Lake effect snow warning events for Syracuse are on the backside of lows that sit off the New England coast. But those have been rare the past several years with the patterns we've been in.
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BGM gives their first shot: Then BUF's just for reference: Looks like they're matching up pretty well (BGM maybe a little more conservative here). Curious why they are taking it just to 1 am Tuesday, as the NW flow will be in action then, adding to these totals. Maybe because this is the main show and also NW flow is so tough to predict.
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It's a fantastic recreational area, but the economy is severely depressed. It also requires lots of driving if you want to get anywhere...but that's not a problem for some people. Winter driving-wise, they do an incredible job keeping the roads clear.
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I think the jackpot will be a bit further south with Mexico to you and then east to the Southern Tug/where I lived for a winter. 6 to 12 inches for Northern Onondaga county. Both NWS Offices are being pretty cautious about saying much for this region though, which is understandable.
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I wonder if the new pattern will set up some opportunities for synoptic systems without rain involved.
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I am sure it's too far south, like they often are.
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I could see watches being issued for Onondaga and Oneida counties with this evening's update. Though, BGM doesn't tend to issue those.
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Whew! The latest 18z run of the HRRR is a weenie run for the N. Cuse weenies. The strong winds might hurt Wolfie and Blue Moon closer to the lake.
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Yup. Although there are two spotters here who are notoriously low. I am always like, "Where are they measuring?!" Bville is big area. I am guessing the lower totals were measured on the SW side towards Van Buren, Warners, and Village Green. My estimate is that most of the Bville area got 8 to 10 inches.
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Not even close to a foot (less than 6 inches) on the Central Square webcam (posted below) from this website, @sferic I wouldn't waste my gas. https://www.northernchateau.com/w/webcam34.html
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Central Square webcam: Doesn't really look like a foot. I am sure it's compacted some though with the fluff factor and sunshine.
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You will see a big difference/variance just in that short drive. It will give you a good idea of what lake effect is like. Brewerton, even closer to CS, got half of that.
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Ok, I get it, guys. Geesh.
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I could see from the Thruway north in Onondaga getting a foot and increasing as you go northward with Wolfie getting a couple feet.
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Syracuse made it to "-0" whatever that means. Lol...
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I am assuming the 3K Nam. I could see that, but I think the Rgem does Lake Ontario snows the best.
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Ha! If I came across as complaining this morning, my apologies. I was just making observations. I know we like to set boundaries for me though with my high snow expectations. Lol
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You called it a long time ago... It SUCKS at synoptic, but it is KING with lake effect. It amazes me how well it does.
