TugHillMatt

Bingo. Until we get a good synoptic snow, that's what's going to keep happening. GFS jumped on board with some clippers starting this weekend, so perhaps we can get that to change. An east coast bomb would be even better.

Probably why it vanished so quickly today. My gosh! Oh, well... Still full coverage here.

Any way you can go up through Oswego county and back during the afternoon? I think that will be the best time for you. The band is looking maybe to weaken a bit before it refires as the arctic front moves in.

Happy Birthday! May your 60s be the best decade yet!

Kudos to @MGorse, @DeltaT13, and @LakeEffectKing for defending your profession well and trying to help this individual understand some things. Unfortunately he didn't get it. Many here appreciate all your input!

Woman.

Boom. Jamestown. But...this has more of a clipper vibe to it.

It starts near the Thruway tonight and then shifts north. You're going to end up driving through it at some point. It will be strong in the morning.

Snowpack took a HUGE hit today, but there's still a few inches out there to hopefully create a solid base.

Lol..I legit had people ask me many times growing up if I was Amish whenever I mentioned I was from Lancaster. My response: "Yup. The buggy's parked out back." P.S. Your comment was clipped (I'm guessing by a mod) on that thread. lol. You've got the reputation... Sorry everybody for the derailment.

I grew up in Lancaster, just outside the Philly area. My grandparents lived in Chester county...so a couple weeks ago he was arguing with another guy about the snowfall records for that county being "wrong." I shared my own experience of them often having higher amounts when I would go to visit and he got all up on my case and told me not to comment. lol.

For real. He needs to be banned. He's a detriment to the Philly forum and I feel bad they have to deal with him. He didn't deserve the time and energy Mike Gorse put into talking with him.

Kuchera is often used to determine snowfall ratios. It gives us a general idea of ratios based on different atmospheric conditions/temperatures in which the models are determining. Often times, it's an 18:1 or 20:1 ratio. During synoptic storms, the guys on here are much more prone to use 10:1, as dendritic growth, temperatures, moisture, etc... all affect amounts. Also, if it's a wet snow...OR a very dry snow (pixie dust), ratios can be lower. We also use Kuchera when we are in weenie moods and want to get excited about future GFS calls of 249 inches over a 384 hour period.

Whoa! You really "threw off the gloves" in that Philly thread! lol... Delta too.

Both evening NAM runs have come south as well. On almost all the runs, southern Oswego county scores the jackpot. If Rgem doesn't budge and ends up right, it will be another great win for that model.

Hmmm, the timeline of the advisory would not imply that though? The second round comes tomorrow evening before this advisory expires. For example BUF included both rounds in their advisory. It's just a bit more clear. Oh, well. It's a logistical thing. NYZ005-100400- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220111T0600Z/ Northern Cayuga- Including the city of Fair Haven 252 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow tonight, and again Monday night. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches tonight in the most persistent lake snows. Additional accumulation of 3 to 5 inches Monday night. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

In the meantime, BGM DROPPED our totals to a max of 5 inches through the entire event. lol Not sure I agree with that. It says til "1 am Tuesday" so maybe they're "sort of" just issuing it for the first round? But Round 2 would be tomorrow evening. Sort of confusing. Onondaga-Madison- Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, and Oneida 305 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, lake effect snow expected beginning tonight. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 5 inches, highest along and north of the Thruway. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero.

The whole south shore of Lake Ontario now has an Advisory.

So close, yet so far. P.S. If you guys want to entertain yourselves for a moment, check out the "Hilarious" thread on the Philly subforum. This guy is ridiculous...so disrespectful to a professional met...giving him a piece of my mind. lol

I blame those flamingos.

Nope, because I didn't realize it was an official debate that required such. I was joining what I thought was a casual conversation and was sharing my observations and experience as a weather fan. I didn't know diddly about you, your interactions, or the snow ruler you obviously have jammed up your butt. Perhaps join the debate team at your school and if they don't have one, start one so you can beat s with one another.

I've noticed BGM often has lower totals in their advisories/warnings than on their maps. People tend to read those quick advisories/warnings when they pop up on their phone. Seems like a "middle ground" option where they can bump up if needed or they're just a "little off" if it doesn't materialize.

Probably me. I had a smart-alek comment to something he posted and then realized my mistake on interpreting so deleted it.