TugHillMatt

The GFS's stubborness all of a sudden makes me a bit nervous. Once it has locked in this season, it has done a fine job. I would like to see it bump back to the east a bit more for us in Central and Eastern NY.

When the models have come this far west with a system in a day, we rarely see them go back the opposite way to "out to sea." With cutters, they will jump hundreds of miles west day after day. So, I see this as perhaps a few hops east over the next couple days...but enough to keep us well in the game. Perhaps that's my inner , but just my obs. of the models over the years.

Icon made it a much smaller storm as well. That could definitely happen in the cold sector if there's banding like it's showing. I really do want as many of us to cash in as possible, so the more "spread the love" the better.

I think it's very similar to what the Euro was showing?

That's a much safer ICON run than 18Z showed.

Well, the NAM is going to have to do LOTS of work to get that low from north of Panama City to Jamestown...

Yeah, I saw the Sizzlecuse reporting above everyone else, per usual. 32 degrees here in the Northwest Burbs. I just realized...if I can make it through tomorrow's 30s without losing the snowpack (Thank you freezing drizzle and low dewpoints?) it will be a full week of solid snowcover! (Up to this past week, I think the longest the pack survived was like 2.5 days before grass was showing?) I was checking out webcams earlier today (shocker..lol) and could really tell the city has quite a bit less snow. It really does surprise me how much wintrier we are up here than the metro area itself.

Same here. Heavy freezing drizzle with 32 degrees. Another common Upstate NY thing that happens with that warm air rising over some shallow cold air at the surface. Our snowpack held strong today and now getting that protective crust on top.

I saw that and thought it looked kind of weak on the Northwest flank and considering what the runs are showing. But, it is an average of many... What a storm for North Carolina if that happens!

Many across the forum are saying this is still 5 days away, but really, it's like 3 days away. By Saturday night, it will be making its trek and we'll be in the midst of either excited, hyper insomnia or melting under a weighted blanket.

Nice, increased chances for many of us from the 12Z to the 18Z for 6 or more inches.

Plus, it may not appear as part of it from above, but below is a different story... Bend in Appalachian mountain chain finally explained : NewsCenter (rochester.edu)

Yes, I chuckled at that as well... The point is the main area of the mountains...most of us know the southeastern part of that is actually the Piedmont region.

So many of the models really want to take the Low along the Appalachian Mountains in PA:

Syracuse "may" actually be in one of the best spots for this regardless... We look to get at minimum 6 inches regardless of a western or eastern shift. I think the models have in general determined the western and eastern borders as far as track. Now, we wobble back and forth. Oh, and I'm still coming back from PA on Sunday Night....

This is hilarious considering I usually just browse your subforum to get some good insights from you all...and I know exactly what, or whom, you're referring to here...

For sure. I understand there are pros and cons to both. Those places I lived also did a great job in the spring of scraping and "sweeping" up the sand so that it didn't all go on the sides and into ditches (which is inevitable that some still will).

Bahahahahahahaha

Which one?

I was over in beautiful Muskoka.

Seems like all the ops have a jackpot over the Finger Lakes. I, of course, hope it shifts east a bit.

They used sand on the roads where I lived in Canada, in Michigan, and up in Redfield. I MUCH prefer it to road salt, as it provides more traction and way less slippery and your car doesn't slide all over the place when you're driving and trying to turn. The biggest negative of it is definitely how it cakes to your car...especially if it's mixed with brine/salt...that stuff EATS away at your car. Hence, the holes in so many cars up there.

...And a hilarious 4 pages of reading that was...

Holy moly. I get back to work for less than two hours and come back to 4 more pages. More s being tossed around than Oprah's dollar bills....

We're talking about cutters, but as @BuffaloWeatherhas alluded to, it's very rare for storms to "cut" over the app. mountains. If the Low is on the EAST side of the mountains, our odds of a cutter are waaaaay lower. So, although there is nothing in Canada to stop a cutter, there is a chain of mountains that affects that...It's just been SO long (feels like 1990s) that we forget that part of the meteorology. A low on the West side of the Apps? That's a different story.