TugHillMatt

I hate being so close to the taint line, but the models (other than random Rgem and some ensembles) haven't showed it getting much further north. The Canadian and now Euro have been pretty consistent with that part. Plus, as 96 has been saying, the more juiced up this is/combined with cold, the better for those on the wintry side.

I can see that being true. That's lots of moisture riding in. The GFS does reduce that amount pretty drastically, but we'll see.

Yeah, NE winds off the Tug can lead to downsloping here. The local posters on here said that we don't usually downslope, but I have seen it a couple times. These SWFEs seem to have increased chances of it. Last February's storm was awful with downsloping here, while the southern part of Onondaga county wasn't affected. It affects Oswego county much worse. If the winds are weak, the impact can be very minimal for further south down here. In Onondaga county, it seems our friend in Brewerton (the northern tip of the county) has seen downsloping during synoptic events the most.

Yeah, I noticed that. It actaully looks very close to the GFS.

True. I just hate that it's showing that ugly downsloping for this area. Looks like chances for you may be increasing as well.

But yet you follow the Icon??

Pretty much what the GEFS are now showing. lol

Why can't we just get best snow to setup in the whole area from Lake Ontario to Binghamton and over to Albany with all of us in between? It's like there's either two options: Hedged north from Lake Ontario, or hedged south to south of the border.

Models continue to show what we know to be the most reliable part of the forecast: No matter what, Syracuse will get screwed by downsloping in a cold storm or taint in a further north track.

Landon means nothing to me right now.

Well, when we average the Rgem with the GFS, it gives us a hit....right?

As seems to be the case for storms for us, there seems to be more disparity amongst the models as we get closer to showtime.

...and then the Rgem does this: lol

Also, NYC would not jackpot (most snow is north) and that would still be 6 to 8 inches across the Thruway corridor.

That would be if I had said it.

Thanks! However, there's still time for things to change.

Yep. Getting there.

Well, some of that is the heaviest precip. hasn't made it here yet...but yes, in comparison to the somewhat greater amounts to the northeast, you can see the suckage that occurs in these parts.

Ha. Well it would be a watch first and then converted to an advisory at a later time if that was the case. I think the ridge has enough pushback for that not to happen.

I am guessing watches will be issued tomorrow morning at the earliest for New York counties.

I agree. Hopefully the GFS and dumb Icon correct north a bit. While everybody else has to "thread the needle" we have to extremely thread the needle to not get downsloped or tainted.

Tantrum? Hardly. Frustrated by this never-ending theme of winters here lately? Yes.

Yup! It's been this way all 3 Winters I've been here. It has been so maddening. Supposedly not the norm? It's gotta be that SWFEs are just awful for this area regardless of track. Good coastal storms that impact us have been MIA.

Lol. I hate Syracuse.