TugHillMatt

Yup..18Z GFS looks like a bunch of crap cutters...maybe some secondary lows developing too late. The same junk we dealt with in November, and last winter.

Yep, that sounds perfect to me. Summer days around 70 and nights in the 40s. I LOVE fall as well. The black flies and deer flies make summers unbearable though in locations like the UP and the Tug. Everything has its pros and cons, right? My wife still says our next move will be to Virginia......…...………………...…...………………………………...…… lol

Hey, daxx. No problem at all about posting on here. This sub is very welcoming to outside visitors. I grew up as your neighbor in Lancaster county, so I am very familiar with "meh" winters. I lived in the southern part of Redfield last winter, and it blew chunks. Doesn't look like they're doing much better this season. Waaaay too many thaws! That area has some pretty good snow retention though. As Buffalo Bumble stated, the UP is probably one of the best locations for consistent snow pack PLUS snowfall...particularly the northern UP. Marquette is actually a pretty busy city up there. I prefer the northern part of the UP, from Munising over to Houghton...for many reasons! The southeastern part is too flat, boring, and gets way less snow. I am looking at potential places between here and the Fulton/Volney area. Volney seems to do the best in southern Oswego county.

...and no cutter/thaw 2 days afterwards that ruins it!

This.

Another wasted week of winter upcoming. If only my wife would live in the UP!

Sure. That's a good way to go. I let the model runs get me all excited, just to get burned. I look forward to seeing your obs.!

Hey, I hope you get clobbered by snow. But, take it from us farther south who have dealt with numerous mixing events this year. There isn't lots of cold air to work with. Mixing has been an issue with all of them.

Thanks! I will be coming back this weekend...just in time for inches of RAIN. Bahaha.

Been in PA and I am surprised how long the little bit of snow has held on here in the PA Mtns.

On both runs, a warmup commences right after the systems. Yawn...

Down in the mountains of PA for the week. Surprised much of the inch of snow that is here survived the mid 40s today. I guess low dewpoint helps. How did the pack do in the Syracuse area and rest of Upstate?

Whatever happened to winters where there was a January thaw, and not 75 of them? Seems like the Raging Pacific has ruled the winter pattern for years.

Apparently they're pretty desperate to win that Golden Snowball...

We've picked up a few inches of snow today here in Northwest Onondaga county. Snow all day...with some heavier bands this afternoon showing off some nice-sized flakes.

It's looked very nice and wintry here all day today. Been snowing lightly, but steadily all day.

2010s....the winters of deep Great Lakes Cutters.

Well, there's many positives about being in PA with family all next week: 1) I won't miss any good snow events up here 2) I won't have to watch all the snow melt again. 3) I won't waste my time looking for winter storms next week (wait, who am I kidding?)

I saw that too. It has some Post-Christmas Cutters we have to endure before we get there. They look like they only get so far north in latitude and then push east...so looks like something where they could be suppressed south more...like what the Euro was showing.

Nah...it's not just that. There was so much hoopla about quite an exciting lake effect event pumping up today on Arctic air, etc....and it's been...eh. Maybe it's all the dramatics of getting all excited about a lake effect "event" and then it's not much to write home about. Don't get me wrong, the 1.5 hour squall we had this afternoon was GREAT. But, other than that, and outside of a quick burst this evening, there hasn't really been much lake effect to speak of. I will just need to go with the lowest of the snow ranges with every event so I don't end up finding each event lackluster. My original comment was a serious "so when is this supposed to start?" When it's being called for, then yeah, I sort of expect it to happen to some degree. Like I said when I edited my comment, almost every model had the band...…….and......where is it? As you know, I'm fairly new to Upstate climatology...and my time here has not exactly involved many exciting events off of Lake Ontario. Which as Dave has mentioned, was something I was very excited about when moving to the region.

Don't speak to me like I'm stupid. The BGM map, plus most models, had a specific "6 to 8 inch" band for my area of Onondaga county today/tonight.

Interesting. People here seem miserable and overly-stressed out. I'm a "slower-paced" sort of person, so people here seem quite intense and in a rush. Very untrusting. Living in the Midwest for ten years, it has been a big culture shock to come back to the East coast. Many of the people in the Syracuse area proclaim to be "introverts" and don't really seem to enjoy being around other people.

Hmmm..trying to figure out when we're supposed to get the 6 inches of Lake effect they were calling for here. Picked up 2.5 inches today.

People here so cold, self-absorbed, and completely oblivious to others around them. I've met some wonderful people though...and most of them are NOT natives to New York state.

I went for a Jeb Walk when the band went through here. Didn't last terribly long, but it was fantastic! Quarter-sized to half-dollar sized flakes coming straight down. Picked up a little under an inch in 25 minutes. Looks like freak is getting the brunt of it.