TugHillMatt

Not sure what you're looking at. They both look like CRAP for Friday from Ithaca/Syracuse and eastward.

Maybe if you're in Buffalo, Rochester, and up to you. But Central NY has the warm fricken bubble spiking up just like it has all winter.

NAM says let's get the 2nd low down over the DelMarVa and STILL let it rain up to Syracuse.

The models have had the Thursday system here and there and everywhere. Now that they all show it cutting and barely giving anybody in the Northeast snow, they are locked in and won't budge.

lol..what a wretched winter

What an ugly set of 00Z runs. Good night.

Wouldn't it be awesome if we could get the in between with just a solid snowstorm?

This winter defies all odds.

...And there you have it. Waaaaay south on the NAM for Thursday's system. In one day, we've gone from Cutter to Suppression issues. With suppression starting to show itself on some of the other models...I am Biting my fingers and tongue hard from any more complaining about this winter at the moment!

The 00Z NAM showing a High Pressure pushing south pretty quickly in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame makes me nervous about suppression.

Or, instead of it being a storm to our North and West, it is now transitioning it to a storm to our South and East. I wouldn't be surprised if the Albany area ends of getting hit the hardest. Like wolfie said, an ideal track for Western and Central NY seems tough to get.

Bahaha..12Z NAM now has today's system going so far south that Syracuse, once again, doesn't even get an inch. All these waves keep hitting Western NY and then fizzle by the time they get here. Could this work out in our favor later in the week? So tired of this frickin snow shield.

It's close to being on its own now. But, if one shows the cut, we tread lightly. There have been many times this year where a model has been on its own by showing a cutter, and it's been correct.

I think it is because we have to wait a week for the "big one" showing up. At least there are a few smaller waves to track before then. Just got in from my walk. Beautiful with a steady light snow falling. It is pixie dust, but can't be too picky at this point. A few tenths of an inch so far. The hood still has a solid 3 to 5 inch pack that can be walked on without falling through. All in all, a nice winter's evening walk.

Looks like we may actually have a last minute over-performer on our hands for tomorrow (hopefully moreso in the evening). 00Z Runs seem to be showing a few inches possible. I wonder how this may impact the systems coming after it this upcoming week.

Looks like it's starting in Rochester now. Hopefully many can get in a nice Jebwalk tonight.

I wonder if this batch will make it over here, or be another one that dries up over the Finger Lakes.

Just checked the Buffalo Webcam. Looks like it is snowing pretty good there. https://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-ny-elmwood-ave-posterartusa-mr-pizza

I remember back in November 2019 when we had that one week of winter.

At least in Rochester...

Yup, I was just going to say that. It doesn't really matter where the boundary sets up ahead of time. It's the fact that the SE Ridge will NOT go away. If a Low starts to gain strength, it teams up with the ridge, and NORTH it goes. Like I said earlier, the only way we get SOME snow this winter is weak systems riding West to East that end with rain showers on the backside and a melt on the side.

"Coastal" or Cutter? I wonder which will be closer to reality. Hmmmmmmmmmm

There are things called shovels, snowblowers, and plows to help with that.

Same. Looks like a different world down in the city of Syracuse. Not much snow there at all. I know we have had more than them. Is it pretty typical for the northern part of the county to hold onto snowpack much better than the city? I noticed this winter that the thaws seem to be more pronounced in the city. Other than it being a city, I am interested in whether the downsloping off the hills JUST south of the city has more of impact on them during thaws than up here. Would love to learn some more about the local climate from you guys.

Probably because of the constant disappointments...BUT...I will say this positive: It has looked like winter here with a solid snowpack for over 2 weeks now.