TugHillMatt

I grew up in Lancaster, PA in the 90s. Mixing capital of the east coast. I'm scarred for life. lol

Hopefully no more farther NW.

I'm shocked. So shocked..........................................................

Does anybody think that Part 1 will be as far north as the HRRR is showing?

All week. Who are you kidding? We've been here since November waiting for each next high of the white stuff.

Have you not used your snowblower at all this winter? I had to a couple of times, and each time it has practically broken the blower down because the snow was so wet and heavy like concrete right before it dries. That looks beautiful. Refreshing to see the forum coming to life. I reeeeeeeeeeally hope this turns into a beauty for ALL of us.

Haha. I love your enthusiasm.

Probably because every system has gone to crap for our area...especially in the day or 2 leading up to it. I mean, even tonight's little bit keeps looking worse and worse and worse. I don't think we will be positive until it's actually happening.

That BUF map seems way too high for tonight. My thoughts, based on the general outcome of this type of setup in the past, is a quick inch followed by some sleet showers, and over to occasional light rain.

Hmm, that makes sense. My advice, based on this winter, especially here: take the lowest amount and run with it.

That is probably just for tonight. The Friday part may fringe you guys which is why total snow will be lower there.

And it goes to crap on the 6Z NAM runs...lol Secondary development way too late and east. My call from 3 days ago of the Albany area getting the most may end up correct. These extreme changes on the models within 1 to 2 days of an event are ridiculous.

I am liking that the cold air seems to be deeper as we get closer now. Refreshing. Hopefully this trend, along with increasing moisture, continues. Looks like the Rgem came in a bit milder though.

Got ya. Stronger shield...it does look colder. I bet you're amped!

"Amped" is not the best word. I noticed you have used it a couple times this week. Amped would imply it is wound up and usually about to go farther north or Northwest because it is stronger. Just a heads-up for ya!

Went for a walk in the hood today. Despite getting nothing more than an inch at a time over the past 2.5 weeks, we have still kept some snowcover. Grass is now showing along south-facing areas, under areas with trees, and definitely within the town of Bville. I'd say we're still about 80% covered in my area with a couple inches of snow. I was still able to capture some wintry pictures, although it felt and sounded like Spring with the running water.

Thanks for sharing. Us hardcore winter-lovers are a rare breed! BUF trolling Freak's house? lol

Off to bed. I am DETERMINED to get 8 hours of sleep tonight. This weather obsession gets in the way...lol Happy resting, all.

Just saw the GFS at 78 hours. I win a gold ribbon.

My guess is perhaps 1 to 3 inches on the front end and then a dry slot/showers. Hoping for Secondary development that wallops us all. Noticing the GFS bringing that Convection off the Mid-Atlantic coast more NW with the past several runs.

If we could get the transfer from the Primary to the Secondary faster, we could do well from both systems. But, the trend this year has been for the Primary to be stubborn and the secondary to be lackluster. Thus, it's warmer and rainier for longer. I was just checking out the latest ICON and you can soooort of see something like that trying to occur.

I'm not so sure. The rain/snow line just lingers to our west for 6+ hours. I know it's just one run. At this point, it's look at every possible way it could go wrong. It's sort of sad. The past 5 winters have really given me a sour taste for enjoying winter weather. I LOVE cold and snow surprises...they are what got me into loving the weather. Now it seems like everything is a "surprise" in a warm-biased way. Basically, how will this event be ruined? I don't like that viewpoint at all. I wish I lived during the winters of the 60s and 70s.

In a normal winter, the track the NAM is showing would be pretty dang good for Upstate NY. Simply. no. cold. I mean we've had trouble even getting below freezing this winter.

That doesn't help, wolfie. That just proves that Friday's Low will somehow end up over Buffalo...lol

I wouldn't bet against what it's showing. Lack of cold all over this winter, ridiculous SE Ridging, No Cold High Pressures to the north...