TugHillMatt

18Z NAM is farther south than 12Z for Thursday, so most of us stay all snow, but as a result of being flatter, the system is weaker.

The owner's last name is "wolfe" lol

Wolfie, did you know that there is a live webcam in Altmar?!? Go stand in front of it and wave... http://foxhollowsalmonriverlodge.com/salmon-river-ny-resort-cam.php

BUF has a wonderfully detailed forecast discussion and then they get to the Wednesday/Thursday time frame and brush over it VERY quickly. lol...They are honest though, implying things are up in the air.

What else is new!?

The Euro and Canadian actually have it as a 6 to 10 inch event for Thursday through Friday for the Big Upstate Cities. Straddling the line...

It would be great to have a genuine winter system this year where we're not towing the line between precipitation types.

NAM looking more Euro like for Thursday

Better enjoy this little ripple we had because it's right back to the pattern of Pacific air with weak dying waves and cutters.

Sweet! I am guessing Oneida county up through the Tug may have done better between the two.

11 inches yesterday. We had 5 inches on Thursday night too. So, 16 inches over the past 3 days.

Getting some decent lake effect snow showers here this morning.

Much prefer suppression at this point... especially since we have a nice snow pack.

In their AFD, they stressed "NIGHTIME" snowfall as 2 to 4 inches (as that map generally shows.) So, I'm guessing they think the lakeshore will get smacked pretty hard before 7 pm, and then what you see on the map is the rest of the night. Sort of an odd way of doing things... Heavy snow coming down here. Back to 1 to 2" per hour rates. If it snows like this for hours, I could easily see these 'new warning" amounts being met.

Interesting...apparently they think we're going to have a substantial lake event? Check out Oswego County as of this evening: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 337 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 NYZ006>008-080445- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200208T1100Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 337 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Accumulating snow. Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

For sure! I can tell the lake is involved more now as the flakes have become those big Lake fluffers that I love! High ratio stuff that piles up fast!

Yeah, I noticed things look to be trending colder for the next week.

Snow had let up from 12:30 to 1:30 to tiny flakes. I thought that was all she wrote. But at 1:30, it picked back up again and we have a moderate snow with bigger flakes again.

Farther East track won out. The normal NW shift didn't happen....lol Roads look very messy on webcams I checked out.

This system is racing out of here. Geesh.

That is a really cool shot. Thanks for sharing, Mike!

GFS and GGEM are showing quite the Arctic Front coming through during Wednesday/Thursday time frame! My wife will be so happy when we leave for Florida on Friday.

I thought there might be more lake enhancement for the Syracuse area off Lake Ontario with the NW winds. Perhaps as the system pulls farther away?

The Unfrozen Lake Erie has really given you Buffalo crew some surprises the past week.

Hmmm..Binghamton's current Obs: (Any of you Bing guys witness it?) Binghamton Regional Airport NY Thunderstorm in Vicinity Heavy Snow Freezing Fog