TugHillMatt

Next week is looking glorious! Several days with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Perfect fall weather!

Bring on the Lake Effect snow talk! I believe I've seen maps for La Ninas and it looks like they are colder than normal winters for Upstate...if my memories are correct. Pretty nice cool down this afternoon. I was outside at 1 and it was around 80...came back out around 3:30 and it was 70. Excited to stay in the 60s tomorrow...we'll probably still pop above 70 just to make me snarl. lol

What is the deal with the Finger Lakes and Central NY getting hot so fast, and higher temps than many places to the south at lower elevations? There have been numerous days this year..including every day this week, where it's warmer in this region than pretty much all of PA, down to DC and Virginia...even the Southeast. I checked conditions in places like PA and they have had "fair" conditions with similar dewpoints and humidity readings. It doesn't always seem to be clouds factoring in. It just seems HOT in this region. If I wanted that, I would have moved to Georgia! But, everything seems biased toward warmth anyways anymore. The Central NY region seems to be dealing with some big-time warming issues.

We've had a pretty breezy couple of weeks here. Today was warm, but as soon as the sun started going down, a cool breeze kicked in. Edging more towards fall...love it.

They were testing out the new Covid Thermometers at the Buffalo airport....always prepped to read a couple degrees higher than reality..........................

We had that problem when we got married almost 13 years ago. Arranged the wedding date for October 13th so we could enjoy the colors around Smugglers Notch during our anniversary. A strong cold front came through the day after our wedding and by the time we arrived, the mountains were more bare than anything.

Wow! Looks like we'll stay nestled in our apartment until at least our contract ends at the end of February. Who knows what things will look like then...Well, probably January, because the landlords will be pushing to know what we're doing...:P

Sure does. Rain came through and now it's 63. Love it!

What a beautiful evening. I look forward to many more like this as we head into AUTUMN! YAY!

I've noticed inconsistencies with many of the major airport stations in Upstate New York. Syracuse's has this ability almost EVERY day to be at a consistent temperature during the heat of the day...then JUMP up randomly about 3 degrees at 4 or 5 pm reports...then fall again. This so often makes SYR temps average higher than what they probably were that day. Doesn't seem very official when sun angle seems to impact the thermometer. I find BGM'S station to be so ridiculous in that it is such a misrepresentation of what the temperatures are in the Binghamton area.Yes, It is at a higher elevation, and even with that, the local weather stations are often much warmer than what their airport shows. The Urban area displays temps well above the BGM's ridiculously low temp reports. Albany's has been the same. Their temps have been coming in quite cool this summer. I was wondering if they're really that much cooler, but again, looking at local obs...they're all 3 to 5 degrees warmer than what the airport is showing.

That sounds delightful.

How much?? Let's all go in on it together!

Yeah, if you posted winter talk too early there, you'd get scolded...usually by Stebo or ChiStorm...lol That pretty much sounds like Kalamazoo! It is often one of the warmest cities during the winter as well. When those warm fronts go through, Kalamazoo temp seems to rise rapidly...often with some dense fogs.

Perhaps it's not always thinking it's a conspiracy, but a wise decision to not accept the gazilliions of "science" informational bits that are being presented with nothing but guesses. I think it's smart to not just jump on some "theory" when the science has literally been changing week to week. That's where it IS becoming politicized...to push the agenda through.

As mentioned last week, I was skeptical of any "cool downs" that are in the forecast. As Thinksnow mentioned, that WAR has been soooooo stubborn the past few years. Now we're looking at mid 80s...again...in the extended. April is the only "almost" guaranteed below normal month of the year anymore. lol

Yeah, Montague and Worth do AMAZING with snowfall AND snowpack. I think they may even do better than Barnes. I lived in South Redfield for a year, and unfortunately that winter there were no huge LES hits for that area. SW winds kept it north much of the winter. That area is also, unfortunately, VERY economically struggling, as there aren't any jobs. The past few winters have been even harder on their economy which relies heavily on winter tourism. With the thaws even ruining good snow packs there, snowmobiling hasn't been too great. Hey, slow poke! I sure do miss some things about beautiful West Michigan! I was in Spring Lake, between Grand Haven and Muskegon. Beautiful area. GVSU/Allendale were only about a half hour away. I would go to the greenhouses down there a couple times a year. Snow melts rapidly there when you get a MOIST SW wind blowing in off the lake. I would say many years bounced back and forth between bare ground and a couple weeks of 6 to 10 inches on the ground. Back and forth. Deepest snow depth of the winter was usually around a foot and a half. Once you get north of a Manistee/Baldwin line, snow cover becomes more reliable...with higher latitude and elevation. West Michigan gets lots of "couple inch" events often from Westerly winds. Grand Rapids can often be the winner there if the winds are strong and jump the snow over the lakeshore. The next common would be the Northwest winds, which would clip much of West Michigan and often pound an area from just south of Holland to Allegan. My favorite for my area were the SW lake enhanced events. That's when Grand Haven/Spring Lake/Muskegon would cash in. This often happened on the front end of cold clippers. After our families here on the East Coast pass away in (hopefully) far away years, my wife and I would definitely consider moving back to Michigan. I love the area WEST of Traverse City to the Leelanau Peninsula. More rural, higher in elevation, close enough to a city (Traverse City is growing fast...would never live there though), close to the lake, and gets lots of lake effect snow. We did, however, LOVE the Spring Lake area of Ottawa county. We made amazing friends there. Not sure if you're talking about the Upstate NY winter thread or the New England thread? Thanks, New Englanders for letting us chat on here . The Upstate NY sub-forum is a great one too. We have great conversations, are pretty respectful, and like to laugh. Our buddy Freak can get a bit feisty...but we all know that about him. lol

Yeah, West Michigan is basically moisture-starved powder from cold clippers that gets obliterated at the first sign of a thaw. The area I live in now does pretty well with approx. 140 inches a winter, but low elevation does no favors. I am looking for a place just north of me in Oswego county. Currently, I'm only a 20 minute drive from Fulton, which averages around 175 inches a winter.

That could be a great clipper pattern for December if we can get some cold, dense air to settle in over the Great Lakes. Being in December, it could lead to some great events for the Buffalo area. Just lock it in for 3 months.

True. From memory of looking at historical weather in the past, I believe the 20s and 30s were also particularly warm as well. Thinking Dust Bowl era...hottest summers on record in many areas of the U.S. If it's cyclical, I would think we would start heading towards a cooler period....this next decade will definitely give us some better answers on that. These past 5 years certainly don't show any sign of heading into a cooler cycle.

The thing I like about snow packs here in Upstate NY compared to West Michigan, is that we often have more opportunities for Synoptic snow to be added to snowpack here, and as a result, the pack doesn't melt as rapidly as it did in West Michigan (usually). Add some sleet and/or freezing rain to that, and the pack can stick around quite well.

The graph does seems a bit incorrect for back in the 40s and 50s. The line looks like it should be higher with all those years averaging above 48. This would result in it looking like less exponential growth (not as steep and fast of a rise.) Looking at years before this might help to determine if that line is well-placed or not. I definitely think we are warming...just questioning the rate based on those two decades earlier in the graph.

Our coldest years now are equal to the warmest years of the 60s and 70s.

Please don't send a lynch mob of weather weenies after me.

If I wasn't married, I would be up there in a heartbeat. Wife trumps rural UP life.

True. With current forecasts in the lower 70s for that time period, it doesn't look that impressive for lake effect. I recall a very cold winter back in the early 2000s when I was at Penn State. I believe it was 2002-2003? Otherwise, besides a few fluke years, it's been mild thaw crap winters pretty much the entire duration of my life. I was born in 1981 right after a couple of great winter decades! Telling you guys...I have the power to bring on Global Warming/Climate change.