TugHillMatt

Good point. Hope it produces SOMETHING wintry.

Nice for you! It kills me it looks like solid winter not far away at all. If we hadn't had that stupid day of 40s and rain ONE DAY after this biggest snowfall (6 inches) it would still look like solid winter here. But that day just obliterated it.

While I agree it will be getting more wintry, that looks like maaaaybe 2 weeks of winter and then a ridge starts to form over the SE at the very end. Much of that run, the cold air is dropping SW into the Plains and Rockies with us getting leftovers.

Yep. You can see how it keeps everything west of the Appalachians.

The amount of warm air that pushes up in front of these cold fronts...and then a low so far south, but still so much rain that far north...is crazy.

The thing that irks me with the 12Z runs is it's like everything gets held back from reaching the East Coast. The lows/waves almost seem to get stuck...over the Northern/Central Great Lakes. Then the Euro brings in a system just as the SE ridge tries to perk up and we rain. The waves look real odd on the GGEM. To my eyes, it just looks like a continued mess.

THE SUN!!!! After it being hidden behind clouds for what seems like months, I've never been so excited to see it!

I am a bit concerned with what the EPS are showing though. Rapid breakdown in more of the decent parts of the pattern.

12Z GFS runs continue the 20-21 trend. Nothing outside if the SW/W LES snow belts (through after next weekend) and the GFS 16 shows the BGM - Catskills snowfall.

The only good event this entire colder season lasted but a mere hour here. Lol The rest has been flurries or 40s

I love how it says "pattern shifts" for Friday and then Saturday it's the same exact weather... Lol

This is a bit discouraging seeing this from you, considering you have been holding out hope and positivity longer than most.

I think it's going to be be the same thing...based on repeating patterns the past couple winters.... rain with the cold front, a little line of snow showers behind it...then dry, while Watertown and the Northern Tug get pummeled by LES on a SW wind. Seems to be the only flow that REALLY produces these days. I can already see the models heading in that direction.

Looks like I missed a great conversation through the day today. I have battled diagnosed Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (huge anxiety issues included) my entire life. Prozac..then Paxil...now Celexa, which I think has been the best for me. I avoid caffeine as much as possible, as well as many other foods that are loaded with brain-altering chemicals. The amount of junk we put in our bodies....only makes things worse. Totally understand the battle with anxiety .In fact, I was just talking to a colleague today about how debilitating anxiety can be.

Yes, the Eastern NY wannabees who think we care how much snow they're getting..... Kidding, guys! In reality, I'm just bitter you all have a snowpack during this long waiting period. (So THIS is what it feels like when you watch all the LES hit western and central NY while you look at clouds and flurries.)

He and Freak scraping rime ice off their cars while we get plastered by snow. Lock. it. in.

You're pretty low-key...so when you get feisty, it makes me chuckle.

The thing that's HILARIOUS about this is that I JUST made plans last night with my parents to come down to their house in PA to celebrate Christmas (barring no COVID results)......for the days of..... SATURDAY, JAN 16TH and 17th....

It looks like it will be a good weekend to soak up some rare rays of sun! I will definitely need to get out there. It will be a good weekend for winter enthusiasts where there is snow. Though, from checking out Snowmobile Clubs' FB pages around the Tug, their trails are wrecked.

GFS continuing the winter theme of too far north or too far south? Just. Brutal.

I'm not ready to cancel yet. But if we're not snowing by the 3rd week of January, it's going to be reeeeal tough to get near average snowfall for this season.

Nice! We have had 1 inch (or slightly more) on the ground at most 10 days this cold season. Half of those days, it's been a sloppy mess of the snow melting. I think Rochester has had it even worse.

Posted on local news station...

I was JUST going to say that... LOL Waiting ANOTHER week and a half of boring nothingness and then rain? Bahaha...killing me.

I'll show you a "force".........