All my concerns with every event this winter have come true. Even the banding trying to move into Onondaga continues to get shredded by, I'm assuming, downsloping right from the higher elevations of Lewis county. Smack another 4 incher into the synoptic books and move on.
The models aren't really showing the Lake enhanced precip building in until more like tonight. I think BUF is way too early in their thinking, but perhaps they wanted to put it out there "just in case" something develops. But, like Delta said, it's pretty evident from looking at a radar that this is a mess with dry air throughout.