TugHillMatt

I mentioned that last night. Would be a great topper!

Just because somebody doesn't call for 20 inches to 2 feet doesn't make them a "Debbie Downer." Freak gave his reasoning for going lower. Sounds like he thinks we will actually have the best banding go over the Southern Tier instead of the Genesee Valley. Doesn't mean I agree...but also doesn't make him a debbie.

Could see some short duration WNW flow lake bands set up on the backside of these systems too.

Going low? I will go between the calls you and Dave made and say 10 to 12 inches for the Syracuse area.

I love that you included Geneva in there. lol

Yeah, storm 2 is not looking like a clean system at all. Hopefully as the week goes on we can see it work SE on the models like we've seen with many "longer range" storm threats.

This is what it looked like on Friday's 12Z run. Compare then to tonight's 00Z run. Nearly identical snow swath. It looks like we've seen the area of north and south fluctuation.

Geneva is looking great. I'd be very leery if I lived south of a line from Ithaca to Norwich to the Albany area. I know we in Central NY are sweating teeny bullets with that ice line moving closer...especially with the lackluster winter we've had.

Are you sure you're not looking at a map of Virginia?

IMO, The Ukie doesn't get the credit it deserves. It's not very good with localized forecasting. But, as a general idea of storm track, it can do really well.

Yeah. I'd say 12:1 to 15:1. Higher than that...especially 20:1 is reserved more for cold Alberta clippers and lake effect snow.

Tim, I know temps are going to be nice and cold, especially for Storm 1, but that doesn't always equate to fluffy snow with high ratios. We often get excited about high ratios for synoptic systems and they end up being lower than expected. I just don't want you to get excited about huge numbers...but ultimately that's up to you how you want to feel. What this does have going for it is the moisture and, of course, lake enhanced snow can have a great fluff factor. Either way, you're looking great...just the high numbers you're putting out there may be hard to reach.

Looks like it's working on a transfer of energy from the primary to a secondary on the coast. That could very well lead to less precip. in between.

I'll take the Para GFS please.

Of course I would love all snow...but if we get 8 to 12 inches on Tuesday and then a nice thump on Thursday/Friday capped/sealed with a layer of ice...we could have quite the preserved glacier as we head into late winter.

Oh, yeah. Duh. I could have looked at that. Airhead moment.

Thanks. It's tough to determine where the low level cold air is on some of the runs.

With the Icon, is ice depicted as rain (green) or blue (snow)? I would imagine the "snow" as a "frozen precipitation"?

Now...IF this ends up somehow moving even more NW and the 'Cuse somehow gets screwed again...that's a different story.

Oh my gosh. I. AM. FINE. Maybe I'll do it this way. I am fine

Guys...I'm not being ULTRA pessimistic or paranoid today. Gosh..... ALL winter there have been tendencies with pretty much every system. Ok...I guess I'll be all flowers and rainbows and say it's 100 percent going to snow.....even though we have seen systems over and over again shifts hundreds of miles many times this season! I AGREE this system is our BEST chance to see a nice snowfall almost area-wide, but I do have my cautions...especially because the models have not nailed anything down even within 12 hours.

I would normally think that too, but the 18Z Rgem and GFS were very similar to what the NAM was showing as well.

Yep. This is all I was saying earlier on the other thread. Yet again more NW on the new Nam run. Tonight's "event" is a no-show, as the precip is farther north than forecast. Still another 36 hours left for this Monday-Tuesday event to do the same.

...And you lived to tell the tale!