TugHillMatt

I'm not looking at the low, per se. I'm looking at where it takes the mixed line, along with lower totals. Taken with a HUGE grain of salt though... P.S. Getting a very nice moderate snowfall (small flakes) up here right now.

I was worried it might be too high. Perhaps Kuchera will save me.

It actually looks a bit more NW in C/E NY.

Even Baldwinsville?

Maybe waiting to see if the NAM corrects?

We've had our pre-pre game snowfall all day here in the Syracuse area. Probably the cloudiest day of this month with light snow falling all day. The heaviest of the day has been falling the last hour. Looks like the NW winds have brought sunshine to Buffalo and even Rochester?

BGM will have a region-wide "Winter Storm Warning" for "3 to 15 inches mixed with ice" from Scranton to Syracuse.

Here we go again...Trusting somebody who spells "snowfall" with one "l" on their map..... At least "Tuesday" is spelled correctly.

I have been waiting for somebody to make a forecast like this!!!! lol

How much? That way it's a win-win for me.

Yay! We can watching southerners struggle with how to drive in the snow!

I know! I was JUST thinking that I am the most excited I've been all winter (I know...wouldn't take much for that ) for a combination of synoptic and lake effect/enhanced snows. It's about time N. Onondaga catches up to the south towns of the county.

Yep! I've had my concerns as well. I still think you're good over there...but Syracuse is, once again, close to the line.

GUYS..........."Remain calm."....................................................

Odd though, as instead of having the low over Raleigh, it has it over NE West Virginia. That's a huge jump NW.

Wolfie's made me a believer that the Rgem is one of, if not the best, with lake involvement.

I don't think I want it any stronger. It could break through the High and lead to more of a Nam 3k look. Again, that's been pretty common this year. At the same time, I could see this being an event where the mix line makes it up to the higher elevations of Ithaca to Cortland/Tully and over to Oneonta and Cooperstown and no farther. I have seen that happen several times since I've moved here. The cold air holds strong in the lower elevations to the north of those higher hills.

If we're going to be close, this is the ideal setup:

Could be really close, but like BW said, could snow very heavy just to the north/west of the taint line. Gotta sniff it, right?

Regardless...getting a nice, gentle snowfall here this morning. Smallish flakes, but it's looks pretty.

...and with a low waaaay down in the Southern DelMarVa. lol

As we get closer, things become even more unclear...haha Still running but south camp

This would also match the season.

Lol... everyone jumped all over me yesterday for warning about the continuous North and West movement...and the trend for this season....

BGM and their huge, area-wide watches... Lol Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben- Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland- Chenango-Otsego-Tioga- Including the cities of Boonville, Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Elmira, Ithaca, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, Cortland, Norwich, Oneonta, Owego, and Waverly 330 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible.