TugHillMatt

Yes, I agree. I believe some of it is that Muskegon is also in a horrible synoptic spot for snowfall. They're in that zone between Western Great Lakes cutters and Eastern Lakes cutters. Obviously, western brings them rain and warm SW winds over Lake Michigan. Eastern cutters are miss with Detroit getting hit and an easterly flow downsloping the West Michigan shoreline. Some similarities to here...which I think makes it equally frustrating for me going from there to here, where we have been between the Eastern Lakes cutters and the Off-coastals. Add in the warm SW winds and the easterly downsloping, and yeah....

Wow, that is bad too. The biggest factor there is the lack of COLD coming in with those winds.

I know, right!?! Crazy. They get most of their heaviest lake effect snow from a SW flow in front of cold clippers...and clipper patterns have greatly been missing this century. We've had more of these cutters up into the lakes which have caused more of a NW flow, which tends to miss them just to the south and clam Holland and Allegan...while you guys in Buffalo are on the other end getting the SW flow there. In the meantime, that SW flow is KILLING lake effect here in Syracuse...while we need more of that NW/WNW flow here.

Haha! I'm embarrassed that you were taking them seriously! lol

Muskegon, Michigan for the past decade before moving here. Their average has gone down nearly 30 inches since 30 years ago...this especially happened while I lived there. LOL Shifting snow: Long-term trends show lake-effect has changed in recent decades | wzzm13.com

Well...regression doesn't HAVE to be 50 t0 80 inch winters"... they could be a bit more generous. haha

I don't know what the flip has happened to Syracuse over the past 2 years. Seems it does everything not to snow here. Interesting note on the radar being goofy again...just like with that early February storm. The "heavier" returns move over us and it practically shuts down. The weaker returns move over and it's back to light snow. These easterly winds really seem to play havoc with the upper levels.

Light snow has finally started here after taking quite a while (other than flurries) to break through the dry air and downsloping. Looking at radar, you can easily see the dry air eating away at precip as it moves into the region.

It's on the OTHER side of me now...lol....I sort of thought that would happen as it looked like winds might be more NW.

We need to take pictures of these "dustings" for comparison AND verification processing.

Places to our north and west (Southern Ontario) and South (Pennsylvania) would say this has probably been an A or B winter. But the zone from Rochester to Syracuse to Northern New England/Maine has had such a failure of a winter. It's definitely been a consistent run this winter.

So neat to watch the lake effect/enhanced precip moving to the west over the lake, while the synoptic returns more northeast! COD NEXRAD: BUF

I am legit coming into this with the expectation that I will get nothing...perhaps the 23432 dusting of the season...expectations have been set so low by now, that I can be pleasantly surprised with whatever we can squeeze out. For the time being, relaxing during my week off and enjoying the snowy landscape!

The west end of Lake Ontario is going to get more lake effect/enhanced snowfall than us by the end of this season. lol

The Canadians and Ukie are showing a REAL nice lake event for Saturday. Perhaps I will take a 2 day retreat from looking at any model and hope to be pleasantly surprised come Saturday.

Congrats on your amazing week of winter down there! I have family in Clarksville, so I have been paying attention to what's going on pretty closely. Per webcams, they are getting dumped on there NW of Nashville.

3k looks to be showing the possibility of a Huron/Georgian Bay connection on our WNW flow around these parts. Still a couple days away, of course...but that potential may be better than the synoptic part here.

Ha! We all know it's true.

Gotta love how this one refuses to move any more north as we get closer.

In reality, there were back-to-back-to-back-to-back major snowstorms...in Oklahoma City and Little Rock.

I thought that downsloping wasn't really an issue for these parts? Certainly seems to be this year!

I mean...honestly...how many times have we seen this over this season? lol

The Nam 3k and the HRRR look better. But then you look at the Rgem, and it shows the SAME OLD shtick of a heavier band of snow out in Ohio up to Ontario and then the main wave to our south...with us sandwiched in between in the CRAP zone. That will probably come to fruition.

18Z Runs look somewhat better...not sure if this is a back-and-forth between the alternating runs...I guess we'll know more (I think?) at 0Z