TugHillMatt

I am doubtful of any legitimate cool downs in the extended range. We've seen this show before. Already, the past two weeks have ended up 10 degrees warmer (at least) than they were forecasted to be in "the extended range." We were "supposed to cool down" this past week and we freakin ended up in the mid 70s (at least in the hell furnace of Sizzlecuse) two days. This upcoming week was supposed to be low 50s, and here we are.... 65 degrees tomorrow and then maybe a couple more 60s days. I refuse to get excited about any cold unless it's actually here and dense and not going to leave at 10:30pm some random night.

There was frost on the cars and rooftops at 1 in the morning last night. I knew it would all be melted overnight with Sizzlecuse always producing its own heat (with the aid of the relentless southerly breezes and clouds).

Same up here. It's the most bland/drab Fall color season I have ever witnessed. Leaves just falling straight off the trees, gray/brown, or extremely muted. Having a 12 degrees above normal October probably affected it...

You're hilarious. Question: Is it normal for men to cut off their penises and throw them in urinals there in Amsternosizzle? Asking for a friend...

First official frost of the season here. Just went out to the dumpster to throw out garbage and scope things out. Pretty thick frost on cars and rooftops. I live at the top of a hill too, so it may be even heavier at the bottom.

I see it's near 50 degrees along the Lake Ontario shoreline, especially in the Oswego/Fair Haven area.

First time of the season in the 30s. 37 here. I think the clouds moving in overnight may hamper any chance of a freeze. Although, temps did fall rapidly this evening.

Checking the forecast...even this "cool down" seems muted. It was looking like low 50s for days, but now right back up to 60 on Sunday and then mid to upper 50s...maybe 60s again next week? You guys know I love cold. I am honestly discouraged that we can't even get below normal for a few consecutive days. So much warmth!!!!

Outside of the warmest urban core of New York City and Long Island, good ol' Sizzlecuse still warmest place in New York right now at 63 degrees. It's incredible, and disgusting. Always leaning warm...We'll have another above average day with warmest temps for the new day coming in overnight...which also seems to be another common thing with the new climate.

I'm so sorry to read this. I worked around people with dementia and it's heartbreaking. I can remember so vividly the one day a lady's husband came to visit her. He was walking right next to her, she came up to me and said, "Excuse me, sir. Do you know where my husband is?" He was such a loyal and faithful husband to her regardless of her condition. Much peace to you as you interact with your dad in the state that he is in.

Seems like the "cool down" will not be accompanied by much wind, so maybe we can start to see a bit more Fall Color and keep it on the trees more over the next week.

Sun popped out and temp soared 5 degrees and in the mid 70s...again....in the tropics of Upstate NY. If the sun comes out here, the temp ALWAYS overperforms that 4 to 5 degrees over forecast. On par with southeast NY again.

Checking temperature obs this morning. I just can't believe how many times our temperatures have been equivalent or warmer than cities across the deep south this year.

Ah, snow. And there was peace across the land.

Interesting thing...reading the forum for a storm that had the "perfect track" for CNY at the end of January and there were boundary layer issues with temps....supposed to get 4 to 10 inches of snow and everybody ended up with junk. As you've said, climate change is real. What used to be "enough cold" for snow from synoptic systems just doesn't exist anymore. We need an extra cold air supply.

Just perusing the forum from January 2017 and there was much discussion about the awfulness of that winter season (and several consecutive winters before) as well. The second half of winter got better, obviously...These long snow-droughts each winter with huge warm ridges seem pretty common.

At the same time, Hudson Bay torches...

Why does this keep happening? It's like, no matter what indices there are, the Pacific sucks anymore for real, lasting winter in the eastern half of the U.S. It's becoming a yearly setup in the Pacific.

I get an A+ for today. I have the freakin Sizzlecuse down. We indeed were 70 by 11:30am AND the temp somehow jumped a couple degrees, as it always does, to 74 degrees before it fell right back two degrees. lol It's so predictable.

It's never going to end!

Lol...Sizzlecuse warmest spot in the state at 11 am at 69 degrees. My call of 70 by 11:30 was a good one. Probably be over that by then.... Tropics.

Check out page 34 of the New England Winter discussion. Some good discussion on there about it. (Well, good as in meteorology-related...not preferred outcomes. Ha.)

I have read chatter on some of the other forums of some models showing the Polar Vortex recharging and plopping itself over the North Pole...i.e. 2011-2012ish...

Wow. Crazy! 60s there...50s on the Tug...and 40s in Oneida county away from the lake influence.

What's the pool temp? I think you should wait until November and take a hairy legs floating in the pool shot...this is the year to do it.