TugHillMatt

My feeling is this is going to be too much of NW flow for us in Northern Onondaga county. Here's BGM's take though: Monday evening, we have around a six hour window for a lake band to set up along the Thruway with persistent westerly flow off of Lake Ontario. Lapse rates will be steepening with ongoing cold air advection, and weak instability will be maximized amid a deepening snow growth zone. This indicates a good potential for some heavier bursts of snow into the night and a few inches of snow across the Thruway corridor and around the Syracuse metro before midnight. After midnight, the upper trough swings through, with with a shift to more northwest than westerly flow. This should help our band migrate southward towards the Finger Lakes, and as we lose the long fetch off of Lake Ontario, we may turn over more to a multi-band structure. Soundings continue to show pretty robust flow and a fairly deep, nearly saturated snow growth zone the rest of the night. So, some heavier snowfall rates and squall- like activity could be possible through the pre-dawn hours. An additional couple of inches will be possible southeast immediately of Lake Ontario, towards the northern Finger Lakes.

We've gone over this the past couple winters. The "average" here is 130 inches, so when the past couple winters have been 70 to 80 inches, that is well below usual. Plus, lake effect snow melts in torchy weather waaaaaay faster than synoptic snow. When you move to a lake effect snow belt for snow, it's pretty underwhelming when there is no cold to actually produce what you're excited to move there for originally. It's hard to explain, but the climate since living here really isn't much different than the I-95 corridor. It's just 5,000 times more dustings that melt the second the sun comes out.

I'm not throwing in the towel, and I'm not snowman19. I'm glad you're amused. I have said it many times that as long as we have this raging Pacific Jet, that we have had for years, our winters are mostly going to suck. The cold air yet again settling over Alaska is not helping the cause.

I wonder what the 10 year averages would be just for the past decade. It's probably even more pronounced. I was just thinking yesterday how the winters here have been reminiscent of my childhood in SE Pennsylvania. It's so mild with snow melting quickly after falling. There's definitely "more snow" here than there, but it goes about as quickly as it did there.

Pretty easy to understand the winter frustration with 6 consecutive suck winters...

You've gotta live above 1,000 feet these days... Check out that zone, North Syracuse weenies...

It really shouldn't be "too early." Just another example of how much climate has changed...

I see the 6Z GFS shows it as a complete NW wind event over the Finger Lakes.

Too bad the 12Z runs are ALREADY turning it into a Westerly wind event transitioning to a NW event, with the zone on these maps being screwed.

On the very rare off chance that somehow the stars align...Check out those couple tenth more max amounts...

P.S. I am always amused by the inconsistencies between BUF and BGM. As we know, BUF always inflates and BGM always deflates...

Perhaps an opportunity for those of us on the southshore to get some accumulating snows early in the week. I'm not holding my breath...

The one good thing is the CFS almost always show torch.... lol.... But does look much worse than what they were showing. I think winters are lost anymore. It's quite sad.

I am so glad the national media warned us of the climate crisis heading our way soon. Looks like a crazy weather day across the country.

I wish I could lock this in AND have it actually happen for early next week.

Much congrats to you! In moving back to the east coast, I sure do miss the charm and friendliness of the midwest (Michigan). Many blessings in your new adventure!

Wow! That's awful. I am not a fan of wind either...especially torch southerly ones!!!

Yep. Hey, you just gotta let it out sometimes. This is a safe space. lol I know we don't want to think, but as I have been saying I see this winter continuing as the past several have. We just can't seem to break the never-ending awful cold season Pacific jet. In learning from recent winters, as we see this same pattern setting up in November or December, we see it going on and on and on. If we can't get a big PNA ridge, it's going to be tough to get cold Canadian air to come down over the Great Lakes and give us Lake effect snow. Without the lakes, it's hard for us to get to normal, as we've seen the past couple winters. When we rely on a -NAO to give us the cold storms we need, it often ends up suppressing them and the East Coast gets those big storms (which we have seen lots this century.) -NAO relaxes...and we get a cutter.

You sure do hate that wind! lol... I think every time I check out your sub, you're commenting on it. Seems to be the new normal with the constant raging Pacific Jet. Wind, wind, wiiiiind.

Um, yeah...we're gonna have to work on that before you come up here........... I think we're already in the doldrums when we spend the majority of the day discussing how to pronounce "i"s and "o"s in town names....

Good question! I too have been corrected in both places if I don't say it those ways.

Haha! I bet it makes the locals squirm when The Weather Channel pronounces their towns Pulaskeee and Lohhhville. (I personally like those pronunciations better...but then I grew up in Lancaster where any tourist or outside family said, Laaaaaaancaster. I think they do it on person for involuntary eye twitches...)

Yikes, the models aren't really showing any synoptic snow with the media-hyped "climate crisis" storm for next week. lol Unless you live in a snowbelt or on a mountain top, your snow chances aren't looking great.

Is the radar overshooting the location of the precip.? That solid band moved through here with like a couple minute burst...and, at 90 mph...lol I'm trying to figure out if "that was it" or if the actual band is still going to move through...