TugHillMatt

Glad to see the Oswego County guys getting some snow action right now. Enjoy!

Love watching bands move in off the lake...Looks like maybe a dusting there...Oswego webcam:

Yeah, I corrected it shortly after typing that. BGM mentioned in their headlines that the band could start affecting Northern part of Syracuse by sunset. I don't see that happening. The winds are reading at WNW, but I don't see that corresponding to the band yet.

Haha! They actually just updated it, and to my surprise, they expanded that area of 6 to 8 inches. Did YOU have something to do with this... Hmmm??

I just saw a car driving through Bville with snow on it. Obviously came from Oswego county. That was my snow find for the day. Haha

Band has been teasing here all day. Looks like it's heading north a bit. Yep, I can tell where this is going... Southern Oswego County gets it...transitions and jumps over us to hit the Finger Lakes. Right, @Syrmax? I think I'm getting the gist of this. lol

Knowing how well the Rgem does with lake effect snow, it kills me seeing it miss me to the north.

Yeah, I am thinking 3 inches for many of us in this area. Seeing some snow flurries now.

It seems like some models are focusing on a WNW dominant band that has more of a Westerly component, while some are focusing on a WNW band with a more NWly component...with us between. Hopefully it will be a "blend" with the band focusing on us.

Well after just looking at 6Z Rgem and Nams, I can see why Syracuse mets made that map. I wish WNW and NW flow wasn't always so "up in the air".... literally.

The Syracuse meteorologists hate forecasting snow for the Syracuse area. Perhaps they're right...but I like Buffalo NWS MUCH better...

I am excited for you!

First weenie run of 2021-2022...over my hood!

We shall see... I hope this pans out!

Wow, that cold air coming in is deeper than I thought. Looks like you Buffalo guys are already down to 40ish and it's already snowing in Wellsville and Jamestown.

BUF's recent discussion actually seems pretty interesting for this upcoming week. I found this one part interesting...Thundersnow??? Contacting Jim Cantore... Lake parameters get a bit more favorable Monday night into Tuesday as slightly colder air aloft (850 mb temperatures near -11c) pass over the lakes. Lake induced equilibrium levels improve to over 15k as moisture profiles continue to improve, but some of this takes into consideration upstream priming from Lake Huron/Georgian Bay/Lake Superior. Boundary layer flow will turn northwest 300-310 degrees during this time resulting in a shorter fetch across the lakes which will likely limit snowfall rates to a half inch per hour or less which is suggested by the latest HREF output. Would not rule out the possibility of thunder/lightning with a cap of at least 15k feet and the -10c isotherm near 5k feet, some of the stronger elements within the multiple lake plumes could support electrification. Most mesoscale guidance suggesting lake bands will be oscillating within the northwest flow making snow accumulation forecast a bit more challenging. Off lake Ontario, the lake snows will likely spray most of the south shore counties from Niagara over to Oswego with the likelihood for the greatest totals across Wayne and northern Cayuga counties, although localized higher end totals could end up pretty much anywhere across this corridor, including Rochester depending on how much oscillation occurs. Off Lake Erie, the northwest flow regime would favor the Chautauqua Ridge and Southern Erie with the greater snowfall amounts. Gustier winds Monday night along with the falling snow may also bring some visibility issues. Will continue to highlight this event in the HWO product.

Northern Onondaga County/Extreme Southern Oswego county is by far one of the most frustrating lake effect zones to live in. We went from being "just a bit too north" to now being "just a bit too south" for lake effect snows on the models. The Rgem gives us hope though. Hopefully it's not too far south.

When I saw BGM post it yesterday, I was a bit baffled at first. I actually had to check the date on my computer because I was like, "I don't think it was this early???" Haha

Don't blame him. BGM NWS was already posting pictures and discussion of it on their Social Media.

That's before it transitions to NW winds...which some models aren't showing much of. If, and once that happens, we know it could be anywhere from Oneida to Canandaigua that gets under the main band (if it actually transitions) Lol

I think the DC office should use it too...for tenths of an inch.

How about the MANY holiday movies that show snow for weeks in the village while there are green leaves on many trees in the background? The lack of paying attention to details drives. me. bonkers. My wife insists that most "normal" people don't even pay attention to those things...

lol..look how my forcefield pushes the snowband to the west...it literally curves to the south. Lake effect snow in northern Onondaga county is so stressful.

Seems like the colder air is rushing in sooner on Monday and lake effect will perk up faster than expected. I could see there being some good brief widespread bursts of snow.

...and their newest maps would coincide with my concern...