TugHillMatt

Yawn. It's unbelievable how it's been the SAME track for the entire winter. Every fricking time there's a warm/rain tongue right up through CNY. 3 bloody years in a row.  One blow after another. Just let it end.

6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

does the west wind snow belt happen alot? Seems like in winter prodiminent flow is generally nw or wnw

West wind used to be more common. WNW is the transitional winds. It rarely ever stays long in WNW, which is why us North Syracuse burb guys are feeling neglected. SW, NW, and W are the most common. The NW winds are such a pain for the Syracuse area as they're so unpredictable. Westerly winds used to be more common, which is part of the reason the Tug, due East, gets so much snow. Lately, the North Tug, which does better when there is a bit of a southerly component to the winds (WSW) has been getting hammered. The amount of times Watertown has been hit by big SW events the past several years seems ridiculous. For most reliable snows, regardless of weather, I still say the Worth area is King. I mean, looking at their webcam today, they look to have about 20 inches there

Yeah, if I lived in Oswego County and wanted to be near 81, I would pick Parish as well. Or the area between Parish and Pulaski. That's the West-wind snowbelt.

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

What about parish area?

There's not much in Parish, but Central Square right down the road has some of the amenities that you would need. Central Square is one of the fastest growing places in Oswego county. Parish gets a substantial amount of lake effect snow. Mexico, to its Northwest, does even better. It is a bit more of a drive, but not too much. I really like Mexico. It has a cute downtown and beautiful public school and property. There are many great farms, especially orchards, in that area. I have looked for jobs there, but Oswego county in general is a rough place to find certain employment. LakeEffectKing grew up in Parish and has family that still lives there.

10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea that’s my worry, that forever feeling of a drive lol. O well, we will see what comes about. I’ll be picking your brain though. Is there an area you’d recommend closer to Syracuse?

Honestly, I'd recommend the Cazenovia/Manlius area (especially Cazenovia as it's higher in elevation and a very nice area). I absolutely love Madison county. It's such a beautiful area.

If you want more affordable than that area, I recommend looking at the Lafayette/Tully areas. They're more remote and farther out, but still a close drive to Syracuse.

If you want suburbia in what "used to be the snowbelt"... the northern burbs of Bville to Clay to Brewerton to Cicero are your choices. Safe areas with a variety of stores and homes. I find them to be very boring areas, as I am not a fan of overdevelopment and they're VERY flat. The landscape is quite boring. Bville is beautiful with rolling hills and rivers. 

I personally like the area between Bville and Fulton, known as Granby and Phoenix. Still much more of a rural feel but close to everything. Many people say to stay away from Fulton, as it has a lot of the issues that dying cities have. The companies left and drugs are a big issue. The homes there are thus very affordable.

I would live in the Cazenovia/Pompey areas in a heartbeat if I could afford it.

13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea, Its just tough. I want that country setting, but also don't want to be 30 mins from nearest grocery store or what not. I've done the 30 mile drive to work for most of my life, it can get old, especially right now with gas prices. I would love to get around the copenhagen to rodman area would be ideal. Would only be a 20 minute drive to where I work right now. Also, open moving closer to syracuse, but hearing matt speak so negative about, I'm very eeeeee lol

You'll get everything you need living near Syracuse. Most people aren't cold winter weenies to the extreme that I am. There are people that live in the Parish and Central Square areas that commute to Syracuse daily. I was only about 3 minutes from the locale you're looking at (Rte. 39) and it feels like forever to get anywhere from there.

That's what Spring is. Ups and downs, with the ups increasing more and more as we head towards May.

MEH.

7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol, yea I got some more details on that place and not what im looking for in terms of the house. Though I believe I will be seeing a house right in between redfield and osceola next weekend. Right on a pond. 

Is that on Waterbury Rd? I lived along that road for a winter.

51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Sorry @TugHillMatt I'm officially going to be cheering for warmth, sun, and high dews from here until Nov. 1st.

Hopefully a few good storms too.

Haha. It's ok. I understand.  I'm really not that sad this winter is ending. As @CNY_WX mentioned earlier this week, how many more times can we take being played by an awful storm track? My D- rating stands....maaaaaaybe a D.

I will wish for a summer of 70s, low dewpoints, and gentle breezes from the NORTH. Oh, what a DREAM.

4 minutes ago, Revracer800 said:

Picked up a nice or two of fluff here this morning also, now the sun is peaking through. I'm so ready for a warm up. 

With how things have gone, your front yard shouldn't be a lake this year! Lol

Hmmm, I think BGM NWS is ready to be done. Per their WWA :

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...One last last lake effect band moving
  northeast through Onondaga into Oneida over the next couple
  hours. Will end the winter weather advisory once snow band is
  north of the region.

Picked up 2 inches of fluff as that band rolled through this morning. 9 inch storm total here.

That puts me at 85 inches on the season. That's the same general range of the past two winters. Hopefully the next 3 Winters will go to the other side of average and I can get 3 Winters of 150 to 170 inches. 

11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Thanks for the breakdown. Reason I’m asking is cause I sold my house in lowville. Just need inspection on Monday to go fine and it’s a done deal. Trying to find something closer to 81 to cut down my drive to PA and we’ll be closer to a bigger area. I saw a nice house in the williamstown area it’s about 2.5 miles south of it going towards amboy. Was curious what that area was like snow wise.  

Sure thing. That sounds like the ridge I was talking about. I have friends that live up there. Very pretty area right in there. It's the first set of hills where the lake effect can get squeezed out. It's a small microclimate, as right when you come down the hills you will see less snow in Amboy. It's also very wooded and snow retention is good. WINDY area though. You can actually see Syracuse at night in the distance from that area. (Not really light pollution in the sky...more like a smattering of tiny lights in the distance.) It's very easy to get to the Parish exit on I 81 there. Does the place have a finished basement so I can come up and live there? 

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Matt, what’s the williamstown area like snowfall wise 

It's alright. Doesn't get nearly the amount that the Tug gets just a short distance up the road. It's in a bit of a minima location, as it's lower in elevation as compared to places to the north, south, and east. There is a ridge between there and Amboy to the south that can get substantially more snow. The Amboy 4-H Center is very close. There will also be more snow in the village of Redfield a short distance up the road. If you would like a good spot in that general area, I recommend the hills between Florence and Camden for a local snowfall maxima. That extreme northwest corner of Oneida county does really well with lake effect snow and retention. 

There are some really nice coniferous forests in that region. Williamstown is in between Pulaski and Camden. You won't get any big box shopping (which I hate anyways) but you can find what you need by frequenting both communities. I love Camden and wanted to live there, but there just weren't many jobs. Most people that live there commute to the Rome and Utica areas for work. Some will go to Syracuse as well since I 81 isn't that far away. Wolfie lived really close to that area in Altmar, which averages pretty close to what Williamstown gets. P.S. Williamstown doesn't have much: A mechanic, ice cream shop, a tiny library, a tiny park, and a pretty popular gas station. It takes about 10 seconds to drive though.  

Just now, Syrmax said:

4" here is my final answer. We are still just short of last year by about an inch and a half. Pathetic. 

Check out the newest BGM call for the lake effect. Hmm, when was the last time you saw a lake effect map like that? 

3 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

That's bunko. Divide by 2 at least.

Not to mention that the 18z runs, as has been the case with most lake effect this winter, have the snow WAAAAY south of us over the Finger Lakes and Binghamton. Again. I was safe to stick with the Syracuse 6 I called for the other day. 6.5 inches here. 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

2016-2018 were both good winters for SYR as well as 2013-2015 winters.

Yeah, I wasn't here then. Thus, 8 crap winters in a row for me personally.

52 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’m getting Matt’s rants about now. It sucks. Lol 

The last great winter I have seen was 13-14, and that was in West Michigan. The rest of the decade after that was atrocious. You guys had some decent months of winter after those years. I have had a few years head start on you in terms of pathetic winters. 8 consecutive years.

Sure. Why not troll Syracuse to the northeast with lots of snow this time.

8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Where the heck was this in the winter lol GFS being the GFS..

 

 

Your snowfall deficit, and much of the Tug, is probably even more significant than down here. Oswego's totals have been lower than mine the past 3 Winters. (Though Oswego City itself doesn't really average much more than the North Syracuse burbs.)

24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I actually haven't jack potted once this year in WNY. The big synoptic storm featured highest totals north of me, same with the big LES event. The other 2-3 LES/enhanced events had highest totals south of here. The last 2 events the jackpots were pretty close. I think we jack potted last night though, based on radar. 

In comparison to central NY, western NY has jack potted quite a bit this year. 

Yes, in comparison. Every synoptic storm has underperformed in Syracuse...pretty much the entire time I have lived here. This is especially true this season.

The only thing that is ever true for here is the temps will get 4 to 5 degrees warmer than being forecasted. Heat over performs, snow doesn't. Please not another summer with record days of heat and then another lackluster winter next year.

Hopefully Lake effect helps us to get above Buffwx's total. Haha. He has jackpotted in like every event this year.

Just now, CNY_WX said:

Nice. I’m not questioning your measurement only wondering out loud if I’m in some kind of snow hole. 

When it comes to synoptic events, I think my area, being closer to the higher elevations to the south helps. The Baldwinsville/Van Buren area has some 550 to 700 foot hills. I notice my location, at 570 feet, can do better than the village. I often have more..

The farther south you go in Western Onondaga, the better it can be during Synoptic events. I get more than you and Syrmax, but our friend just north of Skaneateles does better than me. Western Onondaga county is pretty hilly, and it wouldn't surprise me that there is some orographic influence. Your area is very flat, and like I said, perhaps gets lots of downsloping from the Tug.

I also think my location farther to the west helps me to get additional enhancement off the lake.  It has been moderate to heavy snowfall all morning. Really coming down right now. Hoping for some back building of precipitation.

Here's a picture just to show where I 'm at (definitely more than 3 inches):