TugHillMatt

@Syrmax and Phoenix look to get hit nicely again. Good couple days for him. Looks like I will be in it too...maybe for not as long, but definitely working south as well.

I'm wondering if there will be any thundersnow in that line from Sterling to Fulton.

One of these days he'll all of a sudden show up mouthing everybody off and telling us how "everything is a joke." He'll call you a name, give a report on "north of Great Northern" and threaten to run down 31 naked if we don't get a 2 foot dump pretty soon. Then he will be gone like a whisper in the breeze...until another day....

Where has Freak been? Looks like it's about over his home.

Yeah, I am WSW (almost due West) of you. Northern Onondaga county in general retains snow depth better than the city it does. I have only been here for 2.5 years (3rd winter here) and Syracuse almost always seems to have less (sometimes significantly so) snowfall than us. Ice storms aren't too common as Lake Ontario and a southerly wind can scour out low level cold air pretty quickly. As is quite evident, I hate how warm air so quickly invades this region...my biggest weather pet peeve of living here. The hills to the south of Syracuse create a mini-Chinook from downsloping on a south wind. So maddening. Sometimes, the warmth gets hung up on the hills though and we can get some cold air damming that funnels in on an E or NE wind from the Mohawk Valley. I have seen Tully in the 40s before, while we are in the low 30s. The dreaded rain/mix/snow line. I thought I was getting away from it as well (moving from Lancaster, PA). But, instead of it moving in from the ocean, we deal with it from dying primary lows that move up along Lake Ontario and warm air surges north through the Finger Lakes. Sleet is actually pretty common here...moreso than freezing rain. We need secondary lows to take over more quickly...which has greatly been lacking since I moved here. We want to see a nice retrograding Low sit off the coast of Massachusetts and filter synoptic moisture in along with a WNW wind off Lake Ontario. That's when Syracuse gets feet of snow in a week. Snow depth here "can" reach 3 to 4 feet. Because Lake effect snow compacts easily and snowfalls build one on top of another and keep pressing down...I would say a typical max snow depth (usually in February) would be 24 to 30 inches.

Yeah, I saw that. Looks like you will be in it. Going to be a close call for here, I think.

I'm glad you did as well. Lake effect snow is a whole different animal. You can get great hits, as you've already noticed...and then you can get great misses where you're green while a mile away it looks like winter. Last year, Brewerton got in a really nice band that dumped like 16 inches there...and 8 to 10 inches here. Two days later, we had one of those wonderful South wind Sizzlers (that I passionately hate) and most of our snowpack melted, while Brewerton still had a solid pack. For about 2 weeks it looked like winter there, while the rest of the metro was brown sticks. It can be quite frustrating if you "get left out" whereas on Long Island, everybody gets left out. lol Lake effect is usually also much fluffier and compacts extremely fast...and as a result of low moisture content, melts pretty quickly. It adds up quickly...but disappears just as fast in mild winters. It's fantastic for snow activities like snowshoeing and cross country skiing. It also tends to easier to drive on, as it's not the greasy, sloppy stuff that you get on Long Island.

Word of caution: Take the maps with a grain of salt. Along with more snow chances comes more disappointments. In good winters where cold air is plentiful and we're in a clipper track, sure, winter is definitely more exciting and many nice surprises. But...we've been in a run of bad years where cold and moisture has been lacking. I'm really hoping we can see a month this winter where Syracuse gets 50 to 80 inches in one month. It's happened many times in the past.

About an inch and then it abruptly shut off. Looks like I might have to wait until the new year to see a synoptic system that actually drops more than an inch of snowfall. Thank goodness for that 4 hour overnight lake effect snowfall a couple days before Thanksgiving. Man, what a rough few years!

As far as trying to blame snow and winter on "most weather deaths" I can't help but wonder how many of those can be avoided if people didn't drive like MORONS. With wind, you can't really control anything, other than creating wind breaks. Snow? Stop driving like idiots and I imagine that death count would drop.

I can understand that. It really is quite an experience to stand along one of the Great Lakes on one of those days. Like Dave said below, wind has always terrified me though...as I grew up on top of a hill and we had awful windstorms and trees coming down. The sound at night of the wind rushing through the trees...

Ok, this is where people who hate snow must get confused with me.... WHY would you like seeing 70 mph gusts? I realize it's a rare occasion and that can be exciting, but all it does is damage things.

The torch? Yesterday took out most of the snow this area had... lol. Couldn't even last a day. The 60 degree temps the day before probably had a part in that. Looks like a classic sizzle day as well.

Yawn. Maybe half an inch overnight into this morning? Flurries now. Other than our 1 freak lake effect event, it's been underachiever city again. Half an inch less than predicted isn't a bit miss though... Lol

Of course the Rgem is going to be the one that got lake effect right for Lake Ontario. Remind me to not trust the mesos...ever.

Must be the oscillating features of the band.

About two inches here, right on the edge. Bursts of snow...but the band refuses to settle south. Based on radar, I bet our friend in Hannibal has 4 to 6 inches.

BUF did update their map:

Looks like we could see a band setting up along and north of the Thruway right now. Maybe some connection going on?

Are you in Cicero now, or watching from webcams?

Sure, it's much more common the closer to the lakes you get. Once the colder air establishes itself and more solid lake effect forms during an event, it usually transitions to pure snow.

Sometimes I like that little layer of graupel/ice pellets because it creates a bit of a harder-to-melt base for when the flakes start falling. haha

Yep. Plus, you have these strong winds mixing that warmer lake air in there.

That's quite common at the start of lake effect periods...especially early in the season.

Looks like we've got some action moving over Lake Ontario now.