TugHillMatt

Not a good setup for anybody...unless on a mountain top, high peak, or perhaps the latitude of Maine. I think the 18Z NAM has the farthest North track we could see this go, while the 18Z Rgem has the farthest South. My call is a slushy coating to maybe 3 inches max across lower elevations north of the southern tier. Winters of the Synoptic Shredder Sizzler Suckage.

Heading right for Sizzlecuse. Color me shocked. Likewise....maddening how so many of course show that warm sizzle surging to a peak northern latitude of the freaken sizzle...right up through the eastern Finger Lakes.

Shakes head.

To me, that looks like more of the primaries working their way west of the Apps, then hitting confluence and weakening, and possibly secondaries developing off the east coast. Very similar to the winter pattern we have been stuck in. With Canada being colder than it has been in similar patterns as if late, hopefully we can tap into that...not too much though or it will be suppressed. So much thread the needle stuff!!!

Lol. This place is such a furnace. Check out that temp. rise before the rain. Whatever it can do to sizzle for the day... Southern Wind Sizzle

Early dismissal from school?

The Canadian definitely came south compared to its previous runs. Majority of models look like the best snow in NY will hit between the Thruway and 86. It looks like they're having some trouble figuring out the pattern towards Christmas. Seeing how they're showing Lows forming, and the track of those lows, they could be sniffing out perhaps a clipper pattern. It still might not have lots of cold air though.

Looks like there's some actual general consensus with some snow along the Thruway. Per usual, a weak wave with a very, very narrow swath of snow. NAM looks super weak. Rgem looks a bit better. This could be a 1 to 3 inch event that melts the next day when temps hit 40 again. Or, a "less than an inch of slush" deal, especially if it happens in the afternoon. With Spring temperatures this week, the ground is quite warm, so it will probably start melting immediately after it's done or as it's snowing. Yep, negative tone...but par for the course for our new Mid-Atlantic winters.

I was just going to post that..and had to include this little gift because the trolls are out.... LOL

Yeah, I figure we average about 8 to 10 inches a week through the winter months. Each week without snow really adds up to a deficit.

Thanks! I'm still disappointed you haven't found me a shanty in Worth, NY in which to banish me.

Wow. Syracuse is waaaay ahead of last year's total... If we lived in Tennessee...

Yikes...not a good 12Z run if you're looking for a White Christmas. Northern New England should be white. Looks like the cold air continues to stay bottled up in Canada. Are we going to blow through yet another December with waaaaay below average snow totals?

A Low near Philadelphia in years past would have easily produced snow here. My, how times have changed...

These show a common issue we've had the past several winters. It's either weak and strung out and goes farther south, or if it gets just a little bit of strength, it cuts and goes north. Whiff or rain. Ugly Pacific problems. Have a good morning, all! Hopefully we'll be tracking and seeing legit winter events starting this weekend.

Canadian and Ukie (kiiiind of) look similar to 12Z Euro. Perhaps some Thruway snowfall on Saturday, but not holding my breath. The GFS continues making its bipolar leaps all over the place.

Just awful. Yay, more rain.

Sizzlecuse 5 degrees above forecasted, in the mid 50s, warmest in the state, and a low heading right towards us on Saturday. All on a typical winter's day here...

With the good ol' sizzle SW winds Sizzlecuse, the least wintry-temperature place of Upstate NY, is already at the forecasted high of near 50 degrees. Always, ALWAYS warmer here than forecasted and only a degree or two cooler than the heavily metropolitan NYC/Long Island. The Newark of New York.

Meh. We will be entering the up and down pattern again. The best we can hope for this year is we have a system develop along the trough portion...which is very much possible.

I honestly think things are looking good for a White Christmas this year. Next week looks pretty active with lots of moving parts and cold air becoming available.

For now, it's watching the snow fall in Tahoe: Tahoe CityDowntown Webcam | Tahoetopia CAZ072-NVZ002-132330- /O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-211215T0600Z/ Greater Lake Tahoe Area- Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline, and Incline Village 320 PM PST Sun Dec 12 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 feet, except 4 to 8 feet above 7000 feet. Sierra ridge winds are expected to exceed 100 mph with occasional gusts 40 to 50 mph possible in lower elevations.

This is one of those situations I was telling you about. We get TONS of virga here. Seems there's always dry air... synoptic "sucks" here...at least since I have lived here.

If that area moving over Wayne and into N. Cayuga fills in I could see BGM issuing an advisory.

Coming down hard here for the past 15 minutes. 1 to 2 inch per hour rates.