TugHillMatt

Which part? The heavier band over your locale or the snow hole over Syracuse?

Some of my pack survived today's Sizzle thaw. If I get another trace tonight, the snowpack building will be well underway.

FYP.

That's because you were one of the few here who actually had some big snowfalls off a lake and made it to triple digits for the season.

Yes, because everything, and not just weather, seems to be in extremes these days. Extremes are much easier to remember. Although last year had a decent February, we remember the winter for the suckage that it was.

Lol..I hate the NAM...with a passion.

Wow, what is his reasoning for staying in Cicero? It's cheaper to live in PA. I am assuming he has family up here?

Avoiding getting into it too much...but the politics of urban Albany and NYC do not work the same for those in rural NY. The rural areas are depressed and dying. The recent winters are also killing the main economy of the Tug: Winter Sports. Anyways, Upstate New York is beautiful. You have a great point about Old Forge. They are also in a great location for synoptic systems...and the Fall Foliage is fantastic!

Interesting 18Z run of the GFS. Tries to keep it almost all snow from CNY and eastward. Looks like it hits a wall as the cold air sinks in from the NE. Of course, it gets shredded, but like I talked about this morning, this is one of our only options if we want a White Christmas. I could also see that first "surprise" system that we are now seeing show up for Thursday night being the "stronger" of the two.

Yeah, I've read lots of rumblings about us returning to the same ol' crap once mid January comes. That would be extremely disappointing. However, the same pattern from one month can yield different results another month. With less low-level warmth around the lakes and hopefully a solid snowcover across the northern part of the country, I could see this junk pattern being friendlier to winter lovers.

That's a beautiful look for having cold and an active pattern. The "squeeze play" of a slight SE ridge holding back suppression, and some solid cold pushing in to limit cutters. Still some risk, but I like how the cold slowly settles in over the course of those weeks. The pushing in of the cold air combined with the active flow could lead to beautiful things.

Land is expensive here...to buy, and with taxes. The land outside of Syracuse, especially now, has risen greatly in price, along with all real estate. Southern Oswego County is becoming fair game for all the wealthier of the Syracuse metro. area (and Long Islanders) who want land but can still be super close to all the suburban sprawl/stores of Cicero/Clay/Liverpool in Northern Onondaga county.

Covid. Just blame everything on it. I'd rather think of that than some other

Doesn't exist...hah. The Tug is all rural. The closest option would be Fulton, a city that gets about 170 inches and is about 20 minutes away from all those chains in the north burbs of Syracuse. It's not the nicest city around though...but that's par for the course in Upstate New York. I personally love Camden, NY, which is right on the southern edge of the Tug and is 20 minutes from Rome, NY. Worth really isn't that far away from Watertown, which has the normal every-day commodities. But it would be a drive during the bad weather days.

Covid. Just assume everybody has it.

BUF's updated forecast high for Christmas for N. Cayuga is mid 40s, while BGM's for Onondaga is Upper 30s. BUF is clearly being more cautious until the Euro shows any signs of a farther south track. I am thinking the dreams of Buffwx and Syrmax to sit in their pools in bathing suits on Christmas day in 60 degrees temps may be dashed either way. It's going to be a raw, damp Christmas despite whatever is falling from the skies.

I can barely contain myself. Chicago's traces got nothing on mine.

I was just looking at webcams from Lake Tahoe. They have a deeper snowpack than the total amount of snow I feel like we're going to get this whole winter. I chuckle and feel the need to take an anti-depressant after reading BGM's discussions. Anything snow-related is described as: little, scattered, minimal, perhaps, weak. The only thing that was discussed with almost assured certainty: WIND on Wednesday. P.S. To be fair, that was from this morning's discussion. The PM update is a bit more enthusiastic and appears to be written by a bit more a weather weenie... lol

Per usual, Sizzlecuse 4 degrees warmer than forecasted, 7 to 10 degrees warmer than everywhere else in Central NY, and warmest in the state. 35 to 36 degrees here in the NW burbs. I really think the airport has an intentionally skewed warm sensor. I have contacted BGM NWS about this a couple times and it's "been corrected."

Look at that little stripe of 1 inch they have going through N. Cayuga and into Lysander. Will it happen? Nah...but, take that and melt it in your sauna, @Syrmax!

We're getting there for a legit. possibility on Christmas. Looks much better than yesterday. We'll see if the Euro caves...and ultimately the actual atmosphere works out...

Regardelss of what happens over the weekend, it is looking a little better for many of us to have a patchy white Christmas eve after some snow showers on Thursday. I'm...dreaming....of a.... Traces of White Christmas....

I fight thinking about it....but I can't help thinking it will be right. EVERY time we have these systems, there is ONE model that goes against the others by taking it way north....and that model wins out in the end.

Although we may not get the east coast storms (thanks to La Nina and fast flow), we can get some nice gradient events/patterns (as long as you're on the right side). In some ways, I'd prefer that over a deep east coast trough. There have been some runs lately that are showing a very similar look in January 2022 to what happened in the winter of 93-94. We all remember how that gradient winter turned out. It was my FAVORITE winter from growing up in Lancaster. Gradient patterns come with risk though in if you're on the wrong side, they're torture. It's looking like (on runs I've seen showing it) the SE Ridge will be squashed enough for many in the northeast to get in on the fun. That's IF...that's the pattern that sets up. Hopefully these are the REAL changes starting to unfold in the weather. I have seen information stating that Omni is more like the common cold. It wouldn't surprise me, as usually viruses that easily spread as less severe than others. Don't let the media panic you.

It would at least provide the cold for the lake effect belts like up here...but just that annoying dry, NWly and gusty wind across the LSV. One would hope for a clipper pattern to at least evolve out of that. It's going to be tough to get the East coast storms this year.