TugHillMatt

We JUST talked about the Icon and the joke that it is in the Upstate NY subforum this morning.

12Z meso runs are picking up more on the possibility of some Multi-lake connections for lake effect. My concern is the strong, gusty winds that often create shear and limit snow growth. Doesn't look like a particularly exciting lake effect "event" but perhaps could give us some white for the holidays (if it doesn't all melt in the upper 30s on Friday).

You're like the little brother of the subforum.

I have only talked to you on here a few times...and yeah, you suck. J/King!

Thanks for sharing. I have thought similarly as well. I think most of us on here agree the media feeds into this. I also have my own beliefs/thoughts on why we are seeing more extremes but will keep those to myself. That, and the UHI holding onto that heat

The MJO and the Polar Vortex.... They have been such huge players in extremes.

We have seen this happen over and over again for so many Winters. Why is it becoming such a common theme in our Decembers now!?!

Looks like they dropped the one inch band that was heading in my direction. It seemed like quite the weenieish call anyways....................

Yeah, I posted something similar yesterday in reference to extremes...not just in weather...but in the world in general these days. I would say those weather extremes have been more biased towards warmth and wind though. I don't have scientific statistics to back this up...but seems heat records are being broken left and right. Rarely do we seem to hear/read about cold records these days.. In reference to local climo, looking at statistics, you will see how this century so far is breaking heat records consistently in Upstate New York.

Yeah, that -PNA on steroids is killing us. I lucked out right before Thanksgiving with that one event that could be shoveled but that's it. I think many across CNY and WNY are still waiting to use a shovel. Heck, we've barely had to use scrapers on frost. All these cloudy nights or warm fronts coming through overnight... The climate of Upstate NY is going through some wonky things...I would wager moreso than other locales.

See bold print again. If you think what we've seen is "well" then bless your southern heart.... LOL ... I hope this winter you and the rest of us get to see some solid lake effect events. You'll quickly understand how the start to this winter has been atrocious.

See bold print. You are frolicking...the rest of us are squinting...just to find a snowflake.

Yeah, excellent point. I have had to put my phone down when my wife makes a comment like, "What are you typing about so emphatically? Are you on your 'weather board' again?" That's a good cue she wants my attention. For sure! Be the deliverer of good news or hope for others to join along in the misery of a crap pattern. Guilty of both... This is good accountability. Lol

Yeah, we here definitely don't "buy a model run" because it shows us getting the most snow. I would say we're actually more on the other end and look at them with skepticism and "what could go wrong." It's not a "negative perspective" for most. I know, admittedly, for me, I can definitely be negative about model runs because of my weenieism and being burned (in part to the THM effect ) Tombo will realize this culture of our subforum as the winter progresses. We like to discuss modelology and recognize some of the biases the models have in relation to our local Upstate NY climate.

It's no surprise...all these junk waves zipping along make it hard for them to nail down. Just shows how the science world of meteorology is still a huge work in progress of trying to determine the huge amount of variables affecting the weather.

That's some great self control. I tell myself I am not going to look...and then wake up the next morning and my weenie heart says, "Check the models!" It's an addiction, I say....

I don't know what the heck model run I was looking at.

0Z Euro was ugly for the weekend and next week as well.

SW winds....lol...Sizzle on par with NC and TN...14 degrees warmer than DC and 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Long Island. The ultimate microclimate.

Just a mess: Good thing it's over a week away and will change.

Yuck. The Euro is a trainwreck of damp, maritime air with shower chances from the weekend through the first part of next week. We're getting Seattle's weather if the Euro ends up correct.

Both the 0Z GFS and Euro seem to try and keep our precip. on Christmas as virga or non-existent until the temp warms too much for snow...and we get rain. I say just let the lead wave on Christmas eve drop an inch or two and then this second thing just shred apart with no warm air being pulled in.

Whoa, whoa. Them's fightin' words. Save those for OT or your Philly Subforum.

I mentioned earlier today how it looks like the models are in the process of making corrections as that comes in more clearly.

...and the Matt Effect. I'll be down in all that green in PA.... lol