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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Dewpoints on the HRRR are about 6 degrees (mid 20s) colder on the HRRR than the hires nam (low 30s) after sunset Tuesday
  2. olafminesaw
    The biggest detractors from significant icing are temps near or above freezing prior to arrival of precip and heavy precip reducing efficient accreation. Factors in favor are, of course our healthy CAD and also fairly respectably low dewpoints. I would say more than .1-.2" is pretty unlikely outside some isolated spots closer to the mountains.
  3. olafminesaw
    Right up there with radar attenuation...
  4. olafminesaw
    Time to go full weenie?
  5. olafminesaw
    BWI: 11.2" DCA: 8" IAD: 12 .8" RIC: 5.4" Tiebreaker SBY: 5"
  6. olafminesaw
    So far: 101.7 for regular 72.7 greek Got these from http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
  7. olafminesaw
    We seem to have landfall
  8. olafminesaw
    Oof. Still stalled out too
  9. olafminesaw
    Is it possible that the reason Eta was weaker than satellite suggested because of how far south it is? I don't know much about the physics of hurricanes, but I ask because I was wondering if the coriolis effect only played a role in development or also in maintaining intensity
  10. olafminesaw
    Looks like maybe a bit of shear though, on the south side of the circulation? May prevent the eye from organizing very fast. Motion definitely seems more south than west right now
  11. olafminesaw
    Last minute change to 897 mb, 160 kts
  12. olafminesaw
    Kinda terrifying tbh
  13. olafminesaw
    The plane is making good time. Probably half an hour to go. I might be convinced to join team #sub900
  14. olafminesaw
    913, 150 kts
  15. olafminesaw
    I'm guessing it's around 140-150kts atm.
  16. olafminesaw
    Honestly looks kinda like an ERC has not only begun, but is well on it's way to completion. Explains why the eye is getting larger but not clearing out.
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
    looking like current trajectory would put the center of the eye of NO
  19. olafminesaw
    A plane should be in the storm in about an hour. Any idea why they aren't running nearly as many missions as some other hurricanes this year? Budget running low?
  20. olafminesaw
    The CAD may limit the wind threat for the NC Piedmont:
  21. olafminesaw
    Wowzers. Likely overdone. But the GFS doesn't overdo gusts to the same degree the Euro does
  22. olafminesaw
    Pressure down to 979mb. Winds still lagging somewhat
  23. olafminesaw
    I'm starting to see a pattern where for every hour a hurricane spends over land, it takes about 1 hour to reorganize (assuming good conditions). Zeta was over land for about 12 hours.
  24. olafminesaw
    Could be pretty potent ET transition over land well inland. 80-90 kt low-level jet at 900 hPa. Just depends on how strong convection is on the eastern flank of the circulation to mix down gusts as it phases with the mid-level low. The GFS brings 50-70 mph gusts up through north Georgia, upstate SC, and the western half of NC
  25. olafminesaw
    Nasty for OKC
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