olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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I think just a bit of unforecasted shear did the trick. But for now, it's stayed just east of me. Surprise surprise
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Yeah, I've never seen the totality, so I'll do what it takes to see it in 2024. Last chance in a long time
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Since the weather is as boring as can be, here's a fascinating article about cloud cover climatology for the 2024 eclipse: https://eclipsophile.com/2024tse/
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They did a good job, choosing the east side of guidance. Consensus of the models was for about 2-2.5"
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Hmm... Interesting indeed
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https://twitter.com/LyftGyft/status/1412898761123192834?s=20
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Looking good
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Haha, and I expect them to be right too! We've found so many creative ways of having boring weather around here lately
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I wouldn't be surprised if wind gust end up higher for eastern NC than they were for most of the Florida coast
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Let the hallucinations commence! Seriously though, it's going to be a real close call for Tampa proper, saint Petersburg/Clearwater will bear the brunt of the wind I think. Max surge is just about locked in for the bay. Hard to believe the worst is still hours away for Tampa, as close as it appears
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Yeah, he decided last minute, so he's rushing to get to the landfall point
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Hurricane warnings issued for Tampa and up the coast. Elsa is now forecasted to reach hurricane strength very soon
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Nothing to support an upgrade in the most recent pass, 60 kt max winds and pressure holding steady
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I figure they will be conservative and call it a 70 mph TS, even if there is reasonable evidence to upgrade, for this very reason. They don't want to have to downgrade a few hours later and confuse the public.
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You can see on visible, the convection being sheared to the east. If anything, this enhances the flood threat, especially inland.
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Is this the LLC?
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This feels like one of those reddit April fool's things. Like, it's a practical joke, where we all descend into madness trying to figure out how to get points and badges and why certain new members move up the ranks faster and have special powers.
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We are all newbies on this blessed day
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Seems like Elsa will be crossing land at the optimal strength for surviving landfall well. Big differences though between a track to the south (less weakening) and North (more weakening)
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Wow, 7 degrees colder than the airport.
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Really impressive structures with the cells all along the VA. Just not enough spin to drop tornadoes (for long anyway) but a couple nasty looking hooks.
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If you go on weather.us, you can see some different CAMs out of Europe, not sure if any are associated with the ECMWF though. Looks like there's an ICON CAM. None of these are run outside of Europe though
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Good people, great smiles!
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Are the cells training over the northern portion of Alabama going to create a boundary that will enhance tornado risk to it's south?
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