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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Convection is starting to fire west of the core where it's been sheared, in addition to the impressive convection on the western side of the eyewall
  2. olafminesaw
    24 hour precipitation forecast:
  3. olafminesaw
    Headed for Savannah at 120
  4. olafminesaw
    Doesn't appear to make landfall this run, but drift just offshore
  5. olafminesaw
    Comparison of GFS, UKMET and Euro (0z) Compari
  6. olafminesaw
    Bad news for Wilmington. It's quite plausible that Wilmington could get the RFQ, and at a trajectory perpendicular to the coast. It's too early to speculate on exact landfall of course, but earlier I really thought Wilmington had dodged a bullet.
  7. olafminesaw
    Are there any mechanisms which might cause the precip shield to eventually get displaced from the center like what happened with Mathew? I remember that not being modeled well at all, but it kept shifting more inland.
  8. olafminesaw
    There's swath of 20-30" of rain near the coast on the GFS. The Euro and UKMET had totals over 40" . The freshwater flooding alone is going to be worse than Mathew somewhere.
  9. olafminesaw
    Great analysis here (It continues in the comments below the tweet): https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312
  10. olafminesaw
    The visible loop shows the eye just about cleared out apart from some Cirrus.
  11. olafminesaw
    To kick off the 0z models, the ICON takes a pretty decent shift to the left with a landfall around Cape Lookout.
  12. olafminesaw
    Yet another Arabian peninsula landfall, it's looking rather impressive on satellite and radar.
  13. olafminesaw
    It comes down to timing and rates. Without both I'm not optimistic. But the high end potential of 6-10" would be epic. I love low probability events when they work out.
  14. olafminesaw
    Light non-accumulating snow is going to ruin my love of snow I swear. It may as well be drizzle.
  15. olafminesaw
    It's good to see some decent snow with the deform band on the HRRR. Hours and hours of +/- 40 degree rain has been thoroughly depressing. If this storm were in January we would have probably had an epic sleet storm.
  16. olafminesaw
    Just a little different, lol
  17. olafminesaw
    Yes
  18. olafminesaw
    A warm nose is showing up this run. Verbatim would be pretty epic, but I don't like the look in general.
  19. olafminesaw
    My concern is that there is less cold air aloft than previously modeled. IMBY the column doesn't get colder than 27-28 on the Euro. So I could see flipping back to rain in the lighter precip. (assuming we even get heavy enough precip. to get snow.
  20. olafminesaw
    It's back (would be a special kind of brutal verbatim IMBY)
  21. olafminesaw
    Let's get this party started
  22. olafminesaw
    My oh my, that blue ocean
  23. olafminesaw
  24. olafminesaw
    Sorry guys for bringing the storm south with me (got back to Newport News this afternoon). It's gonna be epic. I really think Pittsburgh winters kinda suck. After a couple little snowfalls they start to get depressing because they happen so often. The big ones are really what make me love snow. Might as well live somewhere in the Mid Atlantic where its sunny sometimes.
  25. olafminesaw
    Perhaps the most beautiful cat 2 I've ever seen.
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