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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Wow, hour 192 is stunning. tucked into the coast, stalled out.
  2. olafminesaw
    The positioning of the High suggests it will be further south
  3. olafminesaw
    A big improvement from 6z for most everyone.
  4. olafminesaw
    When you get a deep moisture feed, with a high pressing down it's a phenomenal pattern, regardless of what the indices are.
  5. olafminesaw
    The crazy thing, is how cold the FV3 GFS is already at the surface. It won't take a perfect track. A less than ideal track would make for a lot more sleet than modeled I imagine, because there are so often sneaky warm layers with transfers. Even if things trend pretty far north, we should get something on the front end, which is a big bonus. You know you're in a good spot when you're equally worried about suppression as you are it coming to far north.
  6. olafminesaw
  7. olafminesaw
    Sure, why not DCA: 17.3" BWI: 19.4" IAD: 23.5" RIC: 9.8" SBY: 8.7"
  8. olafminesaw
    If the eye were less ragged we'd be talking about yutu returning to its former glory. There's pretty good model agreement now on a track similar to Mangkhut. I feel for the small communities trying to rebuild there, if it does indeed make landfall (hopefully with some substantial weakening beforehand).
  9. olafminesaw
  10. olafminesaw
    This gas station awning is blue shed 2.0:
  11. olafminesaw
    3" per hour rain rates
  12. olafminesaw
    Yeah, it's a little out of it's range though. If it sticks to it's guns through 6z, then I'm all in for 60-70 ( east of the triad anyway).
  13. olafminesaw
    And when you get run to run consistency from the HRRR, 9 times out of ten, it is going to be approximately correct. That probably means "only" gusts in the 40-60 mph range, but it's something which we wouldn't even be considering if it weren't for hires models.
  14. olafminesaw
    It's funny to me how much hype there was surrounding Florence, even after we knew for sure it wasn't going to be a big deal apart from some flooding. This should be equivalent or worse, and I've hardly heard a thing about it. Blame the media I guess.
  15. olafminesaw
    Quiet around here, but perhaps what will in many ways be the worst part of the storm, still to come.
  16. olafminesaw
    Winds should remain more or less where they are right now for a long while. Flooding rains may be a concern, but totals over 6" should stay to our south and the higher terrain.
  17. olafminesaw
    Seems like land interaction forced it south, and now it's readjusting back to the expecting heading.
  18. olafminesaw
    Full landfall loop https://i.imgur.com/x5kwJJm.gifv
  19. olafminesaw
    Not the highest quality construction on that one
  20. olafminesaw
    Mesmerizing
  21. olafminesaw
    It may partly be a function of a different part of the eye being exposed, but it appears that Flo has taken a big step to the West over the past few hours.
  22. olafminesaw
    The whole NE half of the storm looks quite healthy, especially in the last few frames. if shear lets up somewhat, I don't see why it wouldn't restrengthen somewhat to a legit cat 3.
  23. olafminesaw
    Jacksonville would be decimated if the GFS is how it played out.
  24. olafminesaw
    There's no dry air to speak of that may be ingested on landfall, which is rather remarkable.
  25. olafminesaw
    It has 30 straight hours of 1.5" per hour or higher rates. I can't imagine that can happen...
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