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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Not the highest quality construction on that one
  2. olafminesaw
    Mesmerizing
  3. olafminesaw
    It may partly be a function of a different part of the eye being exposed, but it appears that Flo has taken a big step to the West over the past few hours.
  4. olafminesaw
    The whole NE half of the storm looks quite healthy, especially in the last few frames. if shear lets up somewhat, I don't see why it wouldn't restrengthen somewhat to a legit cat 3.
  5. olafminesaw
    Jacksonville would be decimated if the GFS is how it played out.
  6. olafminesaw
    There's no dry air to speak of that may be ingested on landfall, which is rather remarkable.
  7. olafminesaw
    It has 30 straight hours of 1.5" per hour or higher rates. I can't imagine that can happen...
  8. olafminesaw
    Does. Does that say 93"?
  9. olafminesaw
    Convection is starting to fire west of the core where it's been sheared, in addition to the impressive convection on the western side of the eyewall
  10. olafminesaw
    24 hour precipitation forecast:
  11. olafminesaw
    Headed for Savannah at 120
  12. olafminesaw
    Doesn't appear to make landfall this run, but drift just offshore
  13. olafminesaw
    Comparison of GFS, UKMET and Euro (0z) Compari
  14. olafminesaw
    Bad news for Wilmington. It's quite plausible that Wilmington could get the RFQ, and at a trajectory perpendicular to the coast. It's too early to speculate on exact landfall of course, but earlier I really thought Wilmington had dodged a bullet.
  15. olafminesaw
    Are there any mechanisms which might cause the precip shield to eventually get displaced from the center like what happened with Mathew? I remember that not being modeled well at all, but it kept shifting more inland.
  16. olafminesaw
    There's swath of 20-30" of rain near the coast on the GFS. The Euro and UKMET had totals over 40" . The freshwater flooding alone is going to be worse than Mathew somewhere.
  17. olafminesaw
    Great analysis here (It continues in the comments below the tweet): https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312
  18. olafminesaw
    The visible loop shows the eye just about cleared out apart from some Cirrus.
  19. olafminesaw
    To kick off the 0z models, the ICON takes a pretty decent shift to the left with a landfall around Cape Lookout.
  20. olafminesaw
    It's no surprise there's flash flooding in texas with moisture being pulled from the pacific, the Caribbean, and right off the extra warm gulf
  21. olafminesaw
    Yet another Arabian peninsula landfall, it's looking rather impressive on satellite and radar.
  22. olafminesaw
    It comes down to timing and rates. Without both I'm not optimistic. But the high end potential of 6-10" would be epic. I love low probability events when they work out.
  23. olafminesaw
    Light non-accumulating snow is going to ruin my love of snow I swear. It may as well be drizzle.
  24. olafminesaw
    It's good to see some decent snow with the deform band on the HRRR. Hours and hours of +/- 40 degree rain has been thoroughly depressing. If this storm were in January we would have probably had an epic sleet storm.
  25. olafminesaw
    Just a little different, lol
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