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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Sweet, sweet pivot.
  2. olafminesaw
    Supports the Euro in that regard. A bit further North of course.
  3. olafminesaw
    That was too specific. I'm just saying, with CAD it's rare to flip straight to rain, especially at 35.
  4. olafminesaw
    Their algorithm is silly, it has 35 degrees and snow for my location. Would certainly flip to ice or sleet at like, 28-30.
  5. olafminesaw
  6. olafminesaw
    I have a feeling someone is going to get legendary amounts of sleet.
  7. olafminesaw
    I think it has value, simply for the sake of allowing people to discuss the LR pattern in a separate thread, when there's a ton of posts.
  8. olafminesaw
    Wow, hour 192 is stunning. tucked into the coast, stalled out.
  9. olafminesaw
    The positioning of the High suggests it will be further south
  10. olafminesaw
    A big improvement from 6z for most everyone.
  11. olafminesaw
    When you get a deep moisture feed, with a high pressing down it's a phenomenal pattern, regardless of what the indices are.
  12. olafminesaw
    The crazy thing, is how cold the FV3 GFS is already at the surface. It won't take a perfect track. A less than ideal track would make for a lot more sleet than modeled I imagine, because there are so often sneaky warm layers with transfers. Even if things trend pretty far north, we should get something on the front end, which is a big bonus. You know you're in a good spot when you're equally worried about suppression as you are it coming to far north.
  13. olafminesaw
  14. olafminesaw
    Sure, why not DCA: 17.3" BWI: 19.4" IAD: 23.5" RIC: 9.8" SBY: 8.7"
  15. olafminesaw
    If the eye were less ragged we'd be talking about yutu returning to its former glory. There's pretty good model agreement now on a track similar to Mangkhut. I feel for the small communities trying to rebuild there, if it does indeed make landfall (hopefully with some substantial weakening beforehand).
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
    This gas station awning is blue shed 2.0:
  18. olafminesaw
    3" per hour rain rates
  19. olafminesaw
    Yeah, it's a little out of it's range though. If it sticks to it's guns through 6z, then I'm all in for 60-70 ( east of the triad anyway).
  20. olafminesaw
    And when you get run to run consistency from the HRRR, 9 times out of ten, it is going to be approximately correct. That probably means "only" gusts in the 40-60 mph range, but it's something which we wouldn't even be considering if it weren't for hires models.
  21. olafminesaw
    It's funny to me how much hype there was surrounding Florence, even after we knew for sure it wasn't going to be a big deal apart from some flooding. This should be equivalent or worse, and I've hardly heard a thing about it. Blame the media I guess.
  22. olafminesaw
    Quiet around here, but perhaps what will in many ways be the worst part of the storm, still to come.
  23. olafminesaw
    Winds should remain more or less where they are right now for a long while. Flooding rains may be a concern, but totals over 6" should stay to our south and the higher terrain.
  24. olafminesaw
    Seems like land interaction forced it south, and now it's readjusting back to the expecting heading.
  25. olafminesaw
    Full landfall loop https://i.imgur.com/x5kwJJm.gifv
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