olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Notably lower DPs at hour 72
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Seems to be running out ahead of the LP some, with the LP hanging back a bit more.
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Anecdotally, this reasoning seems to come up with every storm, and it doesn't seem like the wave(s) coming ashore leads to big model changes most of the time. Of course, we should expect changes, four days out anyway.
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The GEFS was a step South again. If the Euro makes a small adjustment south at 12z, I'd say the Triad is all systems go for a historic storm.
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Once the 3km NAM is in range we'll have a better idea. It's usually spot on with precipitation type with wedges
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My weenie is certainly awake. Let's bring it home with some adjustments South through 12z.
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Might we expect the FV3 to handle dynamics better than its twin?
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Well, the hour 84 NAM always, and I mean always, goes nuclear. So not really saying much.
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A really good track. I imagine it would be colder. More sleet along the R/S line.
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How much is sleet? Who knows, the ensembles won't get the thermal profiles right anyway.
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I look forward to the raging virga storm. Right on the North side of the gradient is a great place to be.
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I expect to see a shift in track over the next 24 hours, usually there is at this range. My guess is it will stay reasonably far south to start, but hug more inland, like the FV3. I'm anticipating a sleetfest.
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It's not surprising it's trended warmer, being early December, all frozen events are extremely rare
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Last night's UKMET was lovely
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That seems to be it's bias. It also shows ice as rain with the TT algorithm, I believe.
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Don't blame the model, blame the algorithm on that site. Sometimes I think we'd be better without snow maps altogether. The micro details they present distract from big picture trends.
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That's about 3" on my screen.
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The GEFS looks good, but I don't like that it slowed down some.
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No point posting 10:1 nonsense to be honest.
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The GFS has been jumping around quite a bit. Give it a couple runs and see if it jumps back south again. Unless you live in SC, in which case you shouldn't have had hope in the first place TBH.
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It's a lot slower. That's a big reason for the jump North I think.
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
olafminesaw replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
I'm calling it, before tomorrow night's 0z Euro will be the time to get in line to get ahead of the big rush. Wouldn't want to get trampled before going over the edge. -
I don't feel great about the FV3 jumping North so much so quickly, hopefully the trend doesn't continue at 0z.
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Pretty consistent, really.
