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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    The snow in WV/Northern VA a separate wave on the back end of the initial frontal passage
  2. olafminesaw
    Better than expected. Many would take this in a heartbeat (although note that the fringes will shrink with time as the forecast gets nailed down)
  3. olafminesaw
    Seems to me a step in the right direction for the NW gang. Moves a bit towards the idea of the low continuing to develop as it progresses east
  4. olafminesaw
    Struggling to take seriously a model that spits out this:
  5. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I feel like the hr 84 NAM tends to be like... "Hey look! A storm!", When sometimes suppression makes more sense
  6. olafminesaw
    Delayed, but still gets the job done. Lots of ice for coastal areas
  7. olafminesaw
    I'm definitely worried the phase will just keep getting delayed and it will only be a storm for Wilmington to VA beach
  8. olafminesaw
    Definitely more east, but still fairly amped. Supports the continued idea of a big hit for the coastal plain
  9. olafminesaw
    Still...not totally caving.
  10. olafminesaw
    Maybe 80% chance of happening. Storm isn't really supposed to get going until mid-day, even for the more amped solutions
  11. olafminesaw
    I won't post for fear of confusion, but the Canadian drops one heckuva weenie run in a storm on the 27th
  12. olafminesaw
    Lol, the triad went from 12" to 2" of snow on the UKMET. Definitely supports the idea not only of more suppressed, but also for significant coastal impacts
  13. olafminesaw
    GEFS looks more amped through 90
  14. olafminesaw
    Seems like Rocky Mount may end up doing better than the Triad. I have a feeling that although we will have long duration and less mixing issues, dry air may reduce the max potential from playing out
  15. olafminesaw
    Ok so far we've got Euro and NAM in the amped camp; GFS, icon and RGEM in the suppressed camp, and UKMET and CMC somewhere in between
  16. olafminesaw
    The 12z GFS will be huge. Whichever direction it moves will be a big indicator of which way things are trending. I will say, I wouldn't worry too much about one run of the Euro. If nothing else, it largely rules out the possibility of over-amplification.
  17. olafminesaw
    Certainly bad news for central VA. However, the GFS has taken big steps towards more amped, so I think the I-85 corridor is looking good for now
  18. olafminesaw
    She's a beaut (GSO)
  19. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I've definitely noticed this on the less amped solutions. Could end up as a SE VA special, depending on the timing of the phase.
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    At the same time, we saw models bit by bit, speed up the timing of the changeover to sleet. Of course this had mostly go do with the storm slowing down and the ULL cutting west of the Apps. I do think in general, the models had a reasonable grasp on the temp profiles in the end. Point is, I think most of the time outcomes have more to do with the track of the low, strength of the high, etc. than bad physics of the model
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
    Ice for many. Still, very long duration
  24. olafminesaw
    Just keeps reloading
  25. olafminesaw
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