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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    UKMET looksmore flat. I'm starting to lose faith in the GFS
  2. olafminesaw
    Columbia to Charlotte to Fayetville could be in for a big time storm for their standards
  3. olafminesaw
    GFS stops the bleeding a bit. Very similar to 6z, but nearly gets enough tilt towards the end to get the precip shield north.
  4. olafminesaw
    The 6z Euro is flat as a pancake
  5. olafminesaw
    I agree, although with the caveat that delayed storm development has been a consistent issue this winter. Could turn out more of a coastal threat. The good news about the 6z GFS is the high is in a great position. The only reason it warms so much is the LP is weak, there's hardly any precip and it's mid-day as the low is pulling away
  6. olafminesaw
    Yeah...not a great trend. The door is open, but closing fast. There's hope through at least the 0z trends tonight though
  7. olafminesaw
    So...model mayhem for the next for days then.... Cool, cool
  8. olafminesaw
    Models are converging reasonably well considering we're still 4.5 days out. I feel pretty good about the spread at the moment, with the caveat that a moderate/heavy all snow event is definitely a bit of a long shot
  9. olafminesaw
    Duration is the biggest factor. Most significant ice storms are at least 12 hours of precip and usually not particularly heavy, but consistent. So overrunning events tend to be the highest potential
  10. olafminesaw
    The cold push is pretty stout, with a dry airmass (this a few hours before onset) This would yield a wet bulb temp of 30 degrees with cold continuing to push in
  11. olafminesaw
    Jan 16th part 2 (but with a better track)
  12. olafminesaw
    ICON looks Euro-like FWIW. Decent hit of snow for Greenville NC
  13. olafminesaw
    Some of the disagreement about in-situ CAD comes down to different Climo dictating the outcome. Pretty good setup for ice in the Western Piedmont/SC upstate (although probably more moderate than major ice storm), much more marginal for our many wake county posters
  14. olafminesaw
    Yesterday the placement was looking better. Just look at the trend on the GEFS. Any amount of amplification will push the cold out in a hurry. If the low can slow down and remain to our South like the Euro depicts however, mid levels may not torch so much and we may stay frozen (at least in the Western Piedmont)
  15. olafminesaw
    Not a terrible place to be though. Just need a low to pop
  16. olafminesaw
    Yeah, for sure. Some similarities to the big mid month storm, although not as amplified and less surface cold to work with
  17. olafminesaw
    Amplification is what causes the warming of the mid-levels though, so it's a delicate balance
  18. olafminesaw
    Euro gets frozen precip in the area, but about 24 hours later, so not nearly as good a look with the high having retreated to the east significantly more than the GFS
  19. olafminesaw
    One thing to keep in mind is the radical difference between the way the GFS and Euro handle the next frontal system (at around hour 84). I have a feeling the Euro won't look anything like the GFS due to the downstream implications. It's going to take a while to iron this one out
  20. olafminesaw
    I don't see this setup flipping to rain for most of the Piedmont
  21. olafminesaw
    I wouldn't say I'm excited, but this is a weather board and I'm interested in weather, regardless of the degree to which I enjoy it. Ice storms are fascinating from a meteorological perspective, even if they are the saddest of frozen precip types
  22. olafminesaw
    The 0z Icon also has a pretty significant snow to ice storm (mostly ice)
  23. olafminesaw
    About a quarter of the GFS ensembles show big mixy hits. Most of the rest are pretty suppressed or the energy cuts to our west and it's too warm
  24. olafminesaw
    The Euro on board with the storm idea. Model consensus at the moment is mid-levels will be a struggle, but as others have said, CAD may rear it's ugly head
  25. olafminesaw
    I know RDU Climo sucks, but crazy that 3"+ storms only occur about every 2-3 years. Question: how did you compile the data for multi day storms? I've been meaning to do a similar analysis for Greensboro, but only find day snowfall data out there.
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