olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Radar starting to blossom nicely in central TN
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Yeah, the NAM twins are not really much different, does more to confirm 2-4" is quite attainable
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The HRRR is mostly useless outside 12 hrs. Even then it runs warm.
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The advisory says 1-3", but my point forecast is only has a 50% chance of precip. Kinda odd.
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Euro takes a step North
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The HRW models all came north from 0z
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Yeah, better to flip to sleet for a while and get good rates than be fringed. Obviously down towards SC is a different story.
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Looking at soundings, the NAM sugguests sleet could threaten to push as far north as the Triad
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The NAM looks a touch North and a touch slower to bring the precip at hr 24
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For the SREF, I would look at QPF as well, ad it tends to run quite warm .5" QPF for Greensboro
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We have the warm nose to harp on instead (for good reason)
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This has a feel like much like the best of the Hampton Roads storms I've experienced, just further south with the strong high, and fed by the robust southern stream that had been featured all winter. All that to say, a dynamic developing system with cold air over the top goes a long way.
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My call for Greensboro: <1" 25% 1-3" 50% 4"+ 25%
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RAH hasn't updated snow maps since 4 pm yesterday. It will be interesting to see how conservative they will be
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Says it all
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Small improvements on the GFS through 42
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Looks more surpressed at 45. Not a huge change, we'll see how it plays out
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Euro looks like a small step in the right direction
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Looks like an uptick in the mean actually, across the piedmont
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Kinda embarrassing that RAH still has 20% chance of precip for my location
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The ICON takes a step in the wrong direction. Looks pretty anemic. I've never really found it to be a reliable model though.
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Only if it's right about how amplified the system is
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Earlier onset for northern NC too. Could make for a messy commute home for many
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Definitely a but further north and quicker to develop the low
