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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Seems in the Triad we'll get stuck between any PRE to our. NW and he bulk of the precip to the east. I wanted a good rain storm...oh well.
  2. olafminesaw
    Probably because it tends to reach criteria a lot for the region
  3. olafminesaw
    Today or tomorrow might be our first 90 degree day in Greensboro, which would be our fourth latest on record behind: July 2nd (1983) July 5th (2017) July 18th (1972)
  4. olafminesaw
    I have a feeling that's exactly how this summer is going to go
  5. olafminesaw
    Two days in a row, GSO hit 89. Still no 90 degree day. Saturday could be our last chance to hit the mark until around June 20th, which would be rather unusual.
  6. olafminesaw
    15/8/4
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
  9. olafminesaw
    They need to work on their map legibility
  10. olafminesaw
    The hires models are showing a band setting up and training over one area somewhere in the Piedmont. Wherever it gets stuck is going to get pounded with at least 2-4" through tommorow morning. As of now concensus seems to put the bullseye somewhere in between the Triad and Triangle up to around Roanoke
  11. olafminesaw
    Might as well make a thread. Get your paddle.
  12. olafminesaw
    I'm surprised RAH hasn't issued a FFW yet. The NAM would bring storm totals to the 6-8" mark
  13. olafminesaw
    As of now it looks like Thusday morning is when the worst of it will hit for the Piedmont, at least in terms of flooding concerns
  14. olafminesaw
    Wonky
  15. olafminesaw
    Looking from the outside in at this possibly historic storm, I've never seen such a series of weenie runs from the NAM, in terms of low probability outcomes. Of course the NAM is probably wrong, but noon Saturday:
  16. olafminesaw
    Yup
  17. olafminesaw
    Interesting how they cluster in a line from Texas to South Carolina
  18. olafminesaw
    It would seem a line of rain/snow showers could make it over the mountains tommorow midday/afternoon, and perhaps a second wave in the evening. Pretty good agreement from the hires models, but probably too warm for anything that does come through to stick. But I know how stingy the mountains are, so probably only light precip, if that.
  19. olafminesaw
    I think it's mainly driven by watching the NAM nail us run after run. Did a lot to raise expectations. The reality is this has looked like a 1-3" event with some upside potential since Tuesday morning
  20. olafminesaw
    Radar is starting to fill the dry slot (albeit slowly). I think we can definitely pull off 1-2", 3" if the costal component gets going early enough
  21. olafminesaw
    The wetter HRRR and RGEM have solid precip in the Triad by 12, while the NAM holds back for a few more hours. We shall see which is right, although nothing building on radar just yet
  22. olafminesaw
    Good tends on the HRRR in terms of QPF for N and W, FWIW
  23. olafminesaw
    Yeah, definitely seems to align with models trending towards less moisture pushing North. It should help us though if a good band does move through early on.
  24. olafminesaw
  25. olafminesaw
    And the 12z NAM confirms this
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