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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Maybe. I suspect this will be a DC to Boston special, but who knows. We need the phasing to occur much sooner.
  2. olafminesaw
    6z Euro ens moves west again
  3. olafminesaw
    This is a pretty decent look right now. I don't necessarily trust the Miller b-like transfer the GFS has. We need phasing to happen sooner to a avoid major p-type and temp issues for nearly everyone
  4. olafminesaw
    Ofshore low that hits New England hard. Light snow for coastal areas
  5. olafminesaw
    Baby steps in right direction continue. Still, looking like a thread the needle though
  6. olafminesaw
    Dude... focus on what you're doing. The weather can wait. This coming frome someone sometimes tempted to do the same
  7. olafminesaw
    Fringed. Less than two feet. I'm out.
  8. olafminesaw
    Modeling isn't putting us in a bullseye. That particular run is. You have to think about all the model runs existing along a probability distribution. Right now, that distribution pretty much includes all possible outcomes, but favors a big storm more than usual. Lack of deep arctic air is the biggest factor preventing the distribution from skewing more towards a big storm.
  9. olafminesaw
    First is the upcoming threat. The second image is last Sunday's storm at a similar range
  10. olafminesaw
    Well, we have our answer, dry air such as this can't completely sublimate falling snow
  11. olafminesaw
  12. olafminesaw
    I fear any east coast bombs that develop this year will inevitably take on a dreaded messy miller b track.
  13. olafminesaw
  14. olafminesaw
    Also, starting to see some banding on the northern fringe show up on the hires models. Wouldn't be surprised to get nothing hardly any snow, except for one band that moves through, dropping a quick half inch
  15. olafminesaw
    The 17z HRRR move the moisture inland more rapidly. Starts to blossom along the coast at around 5 pm
  16. olafminesaw
    They've done a great job with this storm, given the hand they've been dealt.
  17. olafminesaw
    The hires NAM reflectivity map looks great, but the precip map shows zero in the Triad. Will be fascinating to see how this plays out.
  18. olafminesaw
    Some notes for the Triad The trends east on the last few runs of the HRRR/RAP seem to be due to a layer of dry air not far above the surface. Could be hard to overcome. Compare this to last night's sounding at GSO when very light snow was falling. Even with dry air working in from the front, the column is fairly well saturated. Finally, you can see this layer of dry air just above the surface already showing up this morning, so the HRRR, may, unfortunately be correct.
  19. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile, Brownsville Texas has reported snow the past few hours
  20. olafminesaw
    Odd sounding, dry air all the way up the column. Not sure if this would yield precip, or what
  21. olafminesaw
  22. olafminesaw
    Almost reminds me of lake effect snow showers in Pittsburgh. At least you can get decent squalls with that, but it amazes me how any given January day, there's a high chance of seeing light snow showers. Kinda takes the fun out snow.
  23. olafminesaw
    Sounding that does not inspire confidence (although much improved a few hours later). We'll see hours upon hours of flizzard conditions, with a 3-6 hour window for light to moderate accumulations
  24. olafminesaw
  25. olafminesaw
    GFS very similar to last run. A light to moderate snowstorm for most of the sub
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