olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The NHC track ticked west. Makes sense with the turn to the east delayed by a few hours. Lake charles now at a 60% chance of hurricane force sustained winds. Probably good news from a surge perspective. Will hit low population areas
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Seems to have stalled out a bit the past few frames. I'm guessing that indicates the turn is happening
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Yeah,the point being, it was basically assumed before the past couple years that landfalling gulf canes were half-canes
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Dropsnode 88kts it's at the surface, but 121kts just above the surface
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Down to about 970/71 mb
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Yeah, what helped Cancun is bad news for the gulf coast: a larger, more stable core and an expansion of the wind field
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Thankfully, Cancun appears to be mostly cinder block construction. A bigger city of than I thought, over 600k, similar to the size of Nashville
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The core is only about 40 miles across. With a little under 24 hrs until landfall, I expect it to make a run at cat 5
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Recon will be heading in soon. May very well find the most dramatic strengthening yet
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Maybe somewhat improved from earlier though? It lost the big convective blob to the south
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All of a sudden, it appears to rapidly be developing a core.
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The Euro has a similar landfall point to Laura as a weak hurricane
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Cat1/2 at landfall seems to be the ceiling, even with quick forward speed:
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Increasingly it seems, the models are showing an extremely high shear in the gulf will tear soon to be Gamma to shreads. The only way I see it surviving is if it manages to stall out a bit until the environment can improve.
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Starting a thread, now that continued organization is likely and landfall along the gulf coast is an increasing threat. The 6z HWRF is highlighting this evening, into tommorow for a period of fairly quick intensification, once the system gets more stacked. After that track/intensity becomes nearly impossible to predict, with weak steering flow.
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Pretty quick development in the short to medium range. Probably gets mostly swallowed by the Yucatan due to its small size, but hard to say for sure
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Radar estimate: .3" Actual: .05" That dry layer really ate up moisture. Goes to show how having good radar coverage matters
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Looks like once again, NE flow from a wedge should tamp down any flood threat that Beta would otherwise bring. Also fast moving. Lots of parallels to Sally really, just a weaker system. Edit: It does look like there are some dynamics at play. Frontogenisis with a transfer of the low to the coast. Probably up towards the VA border. Has some serious winter storm vibes. DC special if this were January
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September should be the start of soup season and by that I certainly do not mean atmospheric soup. The good news? We're only a week away from the average latest 90 degree day
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The "Double Trouble" Banter Thread
olafminesaw replied to Windspeed's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Lel -
Levi talked about this, how it's expected to pulse as the convection fights the shear and then dies off
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The "Double Trouble" Banter Thread
olafminesaw replied to Windspeed's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Ruh roh -
It's remarkable how near average the temps have remained the past couple months in Greensboro
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Meanwhile the Wpac, which has hit peak climo, had been completely quiet. It must be near record low at the moment. Does anyone know if the two basins often have an inverse correlation?
