olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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We seem to have landfall
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Oof. Still stalled out too
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Is it possible that the reason Eta was weaker than satellite suggested because of how far south it is? I don't know much about the physics of hurricanes, but I ask because I was wondering if the coriolis effect only played a role in development or also in maintaining intensity
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Looks like maybe a bit of shear though, on the south side of the circulation? May prevent the eye from organizing very fast. Motion definitely seems more south than west right now
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Last minute change to 897 mb, 160 kts
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Kinda terrifying tbh
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The plane is making good time. Probably half an hour to go. I might be convinced to join team #sub900
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913, 150 kts
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I'm guessing it's around 140-150kts atm.
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Honestly looks kinda like an ERC has not only begun, but is well on it's way to completion. Explains why the eye is getting larger but not clearing out.
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looking like current trajectory would put the center of the eye of NO
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A plane should be in the storm in about an hour. Any idea why they aren't running nearly as many missions as some other hurricanes this year? Budget running low?
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The CAD may limit the wind threat for the NC Piedmont:
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Wowzers. Likely overdone. But the GFS doesn't overdo gusts to the same degree the Euro does
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Pressure down to 979mb. Winds still lagging somewhat
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I'm starting to see a pattern where for every hour a hurricane spends over land, it takes about 1 hour to reorganize (assuming good conditions). Zeta was over land for about 12 hours.
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Could be pretty potent ET transition over land well inland. 80-90 kt low-level jet at 900 hPa. Just depends on how strong convection is on the eastern flank of the circulation to mix down gusts as it phases with the mid-level low. The GFS brings 50-70 mph gusts up through north Georgia, upstate SC, and the western half of NC
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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion
olafminesaw replied to JoMo's topic in Central/Western States
Nasty for OKC -
*for entertainment purposes only*
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Pretty strong agreement
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Speaking of which, the next couple years are going to be a dumpster fire as everyone forgets what climo is and expect major us landfalls all the time, when what we will get is fish fish fish
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Possible Florida impact aside, it's hard to ignore the persistence of the GFS showing an enormous storm off the East coast. Could be interesting days ahead.
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I think it will hit lake charles with the western portion and at least western Lafayette with the eastern portion. Goes to show how much bigger this is than Laura
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Current trajectory puts landfall just east of Cameron. Maybe 10 miles east of Laura
