olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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You can also see the process take place here, it's kinda clear it needs to contract some more before any chance of strengthening: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html
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I feel like a good rule of thumb is the eye ends up about halfway between the size of the inner and outer when the process begins. Just from observing these happen and being rather fascinated by the process. Also I've noticed there's often a stubborn little bit of the original eyewall left that takes a while to die.
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The EWRC seems to be moving along fairly quickly. This is not shocking as it is moving over extremely warm water and seems to be dealing with fairly minimal shear atm.
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If if it's not approaching cat 5 with a pin hole eye making landfall in a highly populated area it doesn't count. Obviously.
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I want to say 12ish hours is pretty typical, but can be longer
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Looks like a classic EWRC to me. This one may take some time due to the large size of the outer eyewall. Hard to say if it will have time to recover by the time it makes landfall.
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You know it's getting real when the main thread turns to the ethics of rooting for destruction...
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Seeing the isobars parallel with the bay like that is certainly unnerving
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The eye is starting to clear out. Already a stronger looking storm than half an hour ago
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It wobb Yep. It wobbled East along the coast and the last few frames it's back to due north, if not perhaps a hair of a Western wobble
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The NWS forecast is calling for 140 mph gusts in Bradenton
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Seems like recon is still finding a very small core, with a moderately expansive TS force wind field
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Microwave confirms what we are seeing on radar
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It seems to be back on a N trajectory, the past half hour or so. It was moving a bit east earlier, but also wobbling as one might expect.
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It's currently moving NNE
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The closest analogue we have is estimated to cause 75 billion in damage (based on a study in 2018) and last time this occured, the entire island of fort Myers beach was under 3-6 ft of water: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1944_Cuba–Florida_hurricane
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Joaquin being the premier example (although ultimately the hurricane went OTS)
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Ian is about halfway across Cuba and seems to be holding up well this far, although it is just now getting to the higher terrain (about 1,500 ft hills)
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The 6z GFS makes landfall far enough South/east that surge may not be much of a factor for Tampa in that scenario
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Starting to move into shear, but as other have said, a more easterly movement would mitigate
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Yeah, sometime winds take a while to respond to improvemants on structure, but I suspect by the time they make the first pass, it will be at least 85 kts
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And just like that, a couple of hot towers firing near the eye
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The takeaway here is the turn towards the coast that the GFS has as well. Not good indeed
