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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    6z models bring the moisture but seem pretty warm
  2. olafminesaw
    NAM looking north at 45
  3. olafminesaw
    Much different system but:
  4. olafminesaw
    I feel like the Euro likes to overdo precip in the medium range sometimes, but wowzers. Lock that puppy in
  5. olafminesaw
    Becoming a lot less relevant, but:
  6. olafminesaw
    If he's correct, we'll see a response in the models by 0z. May have to do with convective feedback. Definitely a storm where the hires models will be super helpful.
  7. olafminesaw
    Yeah, it seems do be drier with the initial surge of moisture, but then the low kinda backs in towards the coast, allowing moisture to back-build. Could be good for ensuring some snowfall across the board, with less WAA and more consistent banding (after a potential initial thump)
  8. olafminesaw
    RGEM looks really good for the piedmont/mountains. Slower than the rest of guidance, but pretty wet
  9. olafminesaw
    Exactly what I like to see 3 days out
  10. olafminesaw
    Bowling ball incoming
  11. olafminesaw
    I'm not liking the borderline temp profiles. Seems pretty rate dependent. But, a good chance we see some snow for some of the storm at least, but has that miller-B screw-job kind of look, where the moisture dries up and the cold air never really gets established. Chance of an inch in Greensboro: 50%
  12. olafminesaw
    Not bad
  13. olafminesaw
    Mostly sleet south of the VA border
  14. olafminesaw
    Yeah, not too thrilled about a thread the needle setup at the front end of a pattern change. And yet, the best chance of the year. Mountains and central VA, a different story though.
  15. olafminesaw
  16. olafminesaw
    GSO has now surpassed 2003 to become the second wettest year on record. 1.76" is necessary to surpass 2018. Feels like a much more tame year than 2018, but consistent rainfall had pulled us close. The GEFS has ~1.2" through the end of the year
  17. olafminesaw
    Also seems like the models spitting out high ice totals, like the RGEM, do wonky things with convection.
  18. olafminesaw
    The HRRR is picking up on this is well... Could be interesting, with some pretty wild dynamics. Short lived window though, just before going into a dry slot
  19. olafminesaw
    FWIW, the hires nam was 3-5 degrees too warm this morning
  20. olafminesaw
    Dewpoints on the HRRR are about 6 degrees (mid 20s) colder on the HRRR than the hires nam (low 30s) after sunset Tuesday
  21. olafminesaw
    The biggest detractors from significant icing are temps near or above freezing prior to arrival of precip and heavy precip reducing efficient accreation. Factors in favor are, of course our healthy CAD and also fairly respectably low dewpoints. I would say more than .1-.2" is pretty unlikely outside some isolated spots closer to the mountains.
  22. olafminesaw
    Right up there with radar attenuation...
  23. olafminesaw
    Time to go full weenie?
  24. olafminesaw
    BWI: 11.2" DCA: 8" IAD: 12 .8" RIC: 5.4" Tiebreaker SBY: 5"
  25. olafminesaw
    So far: 101.7 for regular 72.7 greek Got these from http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
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