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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    RGEM is the RDPS (confusing I know)
  2. olafminesaw
    The heavier bands could put down snow pretty quick. Unfortunately the window is small for accumulating snow. Also have to battle surface temps at onset
  3. olafminesaw
    I know it's frustrating to watch the coastal portion of the storm slip away, but honestly, not a bad look for a 1-3" of fluff for most of the Piedmont. Even with a late phase, the backside potential is decent
  4. olafminesaw
    Eh, getting into the range where that's no longer true. The higher resolution of the OP serves our purposes better
  5. olafminesaw
    The NYC and NE subs must be melting down right about now
  6. olafminesaw
    This has been a really persistent feature, particularly on the globals. As I mentioned a page or two ago, there could be enhancement from a jet streak, which often over-performs Obviously that value is crazy, but I could see someone getting 3-5" somewhere in the Piedmont, but fairly localized
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
    So close, but phases too late. Even with the south trend yesterday, the phase hasn't worked out for us on really any of the models (except the NAM). Have to depend on banding away from the main LP to get the job done. One reason for the NAM's depiction (I believe, I'm a little out of my depth here) is enhancement due to the placement and strength of a jet streak
  9. olafminesaw
    Anyone have the 6z Euro? Looks decent at H5
  10. olafminesaw
    I wouldn't shocked to see a double maxima, one over the western Piedmont, where banding develops and where temps are better intially. Over the eastern Piedmont could stay pretty dry waiting for the transfer and rates will have a hard time overcoming temps of 34-36 initially. And of course closer to the coast will fair better, with 3"+ for NE NC
  11. olafminesaw
  12. olafminesaw
    Better still
  13. olafminesaw
    RGEM is meh. Close to something decent though
  14. olafminesaw
    Main takeaway:
  15. olafminesaw
    Big improvement on the NAM through hour 60. Seems they NAM likes to over-amplify at this range though, so tog be taken with a grain rain of salt
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
    Me too. I just know that one day, it'll be "the big one". It's kinda my Moby Dick. When I was a kid DC seemed to rarely get more than 6" or so of snow. Then magical 09-10 hit when I was in middle school. I had no idea 2-3 feet of snow was possible, let alone two storms of that magnitude in a single winter. It was like being transported to another planet, and ever since, I've craved that same feeling to happen again
  18. olafminesaw
    It's been a long couple of days since that absolutely bonkers GFS run. Always disappointing when a high ceiling event falls through, even knowing how unlikely a high impact event was in reality
  19. olafminesaw
    Elizabeth City's record of 9.2" for the month of January seems to be within reach
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    CMC Looks much like the GFS so far
  22. olafminesaw
    What a monster weenie run for Boston. Holy cow
  23. olafminesaw
    My best understanding is we need a weaker Northern stream and earlier phasing with the Southern stream, correct?
  24. olafminesaw
    The RGEM wasn't exactly perfect with our last storm. It was definitely over-amped for the majority of it's runs
  25. olafminesaw
    RGEM is real close to a solution that work well for most. I think no matter what happens NE NC will fair the best
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