olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Yeah, I remember someone posting somewhere a map a while back (may have been weatherbell?), that attempted to calculate true accrual.
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Really starts to get established the last couple frames. A strong signal for the climo favored areas
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Classic CAD
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When I see this, I don't for a second think: winter storm incoming
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It seems at 500mb, the ens support the op, so I would guess there are a few outliers that have a more GFS-like solution, while the majority are weak with hardly any snow for anyone
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The Ukmet is quite suppressed. Pretty good place to be at this range.
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Yep, need more blocking for sure. Feels like this year there either isn't enough blocking or the storm hardly develops at all, to where there isn't even really any legit thread the needle opportunities.
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Honestly, his maps would be really solid if he just cut his totals in half. It's like he posts his max potential map every storm by accident, or something
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It's torture I tell you
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Ugh, stuck in the subsidence between the blobs. Even so, snowing very lightly.
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This has been the most suspense for half an inch of snow I've ever experienced. I also grew up in snowier climates, so, this is especially tortuous.
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You can see the deform band start to form/fill in. Hoping for a few hours of moderate snow at this point
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I just would like to observe, the HRRR has been a pile of hot garbage. The WRF- ARW has done probably the best so far
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Hires NAM had like a 6 hour dry slot for the triad. Otherwise decent though
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RAH Is always seems to be one of the most conservative offices I've encountered. I think their current call Is a perfectly plausible outcome, but more seems likely. They're currently calling for more rain than snow, at least in their hourly, which is a bit strange.
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This map created midday yesterday is starting to look awfully reasonable (if a bit aggressive)
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Yup
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For those stuck in the dry slot, could be be a pretty frustrating event, looks promising to start, get a dusting, then hours of drizzle/light snow. For those at the pivot point, it could be pretty epic: a couple inches on the front end, then possibly mixing with sleet, then a couple more inches as the deform band rolls through. The triad could go either way at this point, but 1"+ is feeling pretty solid right now
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Hires snowfall totals
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Hires nam is blah on the front end (outside the mountains), brings the goods on the back end.
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Hmm
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NAM a step towards the Euro, as far as having a dry slot east of the foothills (to start anyway, then it starts to fill in)
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The Euro definitely moves quicker and hugs the coast less than the NAM, which is one reason for the discrepancy. I think the hires NAM works as a decent middle ground (although I'd definitely think less than it depicts Is likely)
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GFS looks, warm, but just glad it didn't jump north. Time to start relying on hires models.
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Loooong range HRRR looks nice. An initial thump like this would go a long way towards dropping surface temps (even factoring in the HRRR's cold bias) may get sleetier than expected.
