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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    GSO Monday morning
  2. olafminesaw
    RGEM tends to be too cold with these type of systems, but verbatim, precip starts in the upper 20s and slowly warms
  3. olafminesaw
    That's a pretty rough screw zone. What's your Climo normally like relative to the Triad?
  4. olafminesaw
    B+ in Greensboro for a lot of the reasons stated, but we just had a bit more luck (and Climo on our side)
  5. olafminesaw
  6. olafminesaw
    The pattern continues
  7. olafminesaw
    The Euro has some light snow up there as well. Seems to be more of a mountains threat, but we shall see
  8. olafminesaw
    Wow! Still in the mid 40s in parts of the Piedmont. The wedge is starting to break here though. Above 50 and no longer foggy/misty
  9. olafminesaw
    There's a slim chance on the 7th/8th. Right now doesn't look like much cold air to work with, so would need a stronger system to generate it's own. But looks like the kind of system that would get squashed easily by any decent cold
  10. olafminesaw
    The NAM is the "singles in your area"
  11. olafminesaw
    Our next threat period around the 10th
  12. olafminesaw
    UKMET looksmore flat. I'm starting to lose faith in the GFS
  13. olafminesaw
    Columbia to Charlotte to Fayetville could be in for a big time storm for their standards
  14. olafminesaw
    GFS stops the bleeding a bit. Very similar to 6z, but nearly gets enough tilt towards the end to get the precip shield north.
  15. olafminesaw
    The 6z Euro is flat as a pancake
  16. olafminesaw
    I agree, although with the caveat that delayed storm development has been a consistent issue this winter. Could turn out more of a coastal threat. The good news about the 6z GFS is the high is in a great position. The only reason it warms so much is the LP is weak, there's hardly any precip and it's mid-day as the low is pulling away
  17. olafminesaw
    Yeah...not a great trend. The door is open, but closing fast. There's hope through at least the 0z trends tonight though
  18. olafminesaw
    So...model mayhem for the next for days then.... Cool, cool
  19. olafminesaw
    Models are converging reasonably well considering we're still 4.5 days out. I feel pretty good about the spread at the moment, with the caveat that a moderate/heavy all snow event is definitely a bit of a long shot
  20. olafminesaw
    Duration is the biggest factor. Most significant ice storms are at least 12 hours of precip and usually not particularly heavy, but consistent. So overrunning events tend to be the highest potential
  21. olafminesaw
    The cold push is pretty stout, with a dry airmass (this a few hours before onset) This would yield a wet bulb temp of 30 degrees with cold continuing to push in
  22. olafminesaw
    Jan 16th part 2 (but with a better track)
  23. olafminesaw
    ICON looks Euro-like FWIW. Decent hit of snow for Greenville NC
  24. olafminesaw
    Some of the disagreement about in-situ CAD comes down to different Climo dictating the outcome. Pretty good setup for ice in the Western Piedmont/SC upstate (although probably more moderate than major ice storm), much more marginal for our many wake county posters
  25. olafminesaw
    Yesterday the placement was looking better. Just look at the trend on the GEFS. Any amount of amplification will push the cold out in a hurry. If the low can slow down and remain to our South like the Euro depicts however, mid levels may not torch so much and we may stay frozen (at least in the Western Piedmont)
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