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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    The gulf stream isn't really any warmer than the water Nicole is currently traversing. The warmest waters it will cross will be just before reaching the Bahamas
  2. olafminesaw
    I kept wondering why the advisory times are one hour earlier, took me forever to figure out why... Hurricanes after fall back are not the norm apparently
  3. olafminesaw
    The 12zHAFS nailed the evolution today if you flip through the IR frames. Like, shocking really. Gets convection ramping up again around midnight
  4. olafminesaw
    Recon finds a pressure of 980 mb or so and supports winds of 55-60 kts
  5. olafminesaw
    45 kt surface winds recorded 200 miles or so West of the center (from the upper level recon flight), this thing is really starting to expand
  6. olafminesaw
    Indeed, looks pretty darn good all of a sudden
  7. olafminesaw
    It seems like regardless of how much the pressure drops, it's maxing out between 60-75 mph. Any pressure drops below 980 are primarily expanding the wind field
  8. olafminesaw
    Seems Nicole is going to need to get down to around 980-85 mb to reach hurricane strength. Of course this will be higher impact than a typical cat 1 due to it's size
  9. olafminesaw
    Certainly a tight core
  10. olafminesaw
    The HWRF doesn't begin to build a tropic core until this evening. I presume this will occur once Nicole begins to turn back to the south over warmer water, as long as dry air doesn't inhibit development
  11. olafminesaw
    The 4 pm discussion said it's still moving westward. I will say, watching the LLC in the short-term can be misleading, but still seems odd
  12. olafminesaw
    It appears another recon flight will be in the storm in 4-5 hours. It will be interesting to see if the LLC continues to move south or moves back to the W or NW in that timeframe.
  13. olafminesaw
    The Euro seems to really broaden the wind-field, without increasing max wind speed. Has a massive area of 35-45 mph winds, but probably would be a 50 mph landfall
  14. olafminesaw
    Not exactly your classic strengthening TS look
  15. olafminesaw
    Yep, the 6z Euro include with that trend. Pressure at landfall of 990-995 mb and strength of about 50 mph is my guess. A third landfall in Nova Scotia isn't out of the question as well, as per the GFS
  16. olafminesaw
    Boy do I love Septanuary
  17. olafminesaw
    Stronger
  18. olafminesaw
    All things considered, a pretty high degree of confidence in a strong system from the EPS.
  19. olafminesaw
    It's pretty simple really...the GFS is on crack. A fairly weak low tracking across Florida, into the gulf, bringing areas of heavy rain, makes the most sense.
  20. olafminesaw
    GFS developed a TS only 84 hours out. May not be so far fetched this time
  21. olafminesaw
    Recurves sharply OTS after a brush with Hispaniola
  22. olafminesaw
    Yuuup. Hooks it west into Florida while growing enormous. Because that makes sense
  23. olafminesaw
    Okay...maybe not. Might just be the smoothest EWRC I've ever seen: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_19E/web/displayGifsBy12hr_03.html
  24. olafminesaw
    Hot tower!
  25. olafminesaw
    Seems like it's probably peaked and the EWRC should begin to weaken it soon
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