olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The GFS is a big outlier regarding temps
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As I believe NorthHillsWx alluded to earlier, it's all about the timing of the phase. Once the phase occurs the thermals improve, we really want a classic miller A, while some models are a bit more miller B / late phase (GFS)
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A tale as old as time, all the cold air gets dumped into Texas and we get the leftovers
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Canadian looks halfway between the GFS and Euro at H5
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No phasing, very different than the Euro. The second wave gets left behind as well.
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The GFS so far is a bit slower and a bit more amped
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To beat the dead horse, the ICON looks way different at H5 than the other models
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Like three days before the last snow event the ICON had no precip impacting the Gulf coast, it's pretty much useless.
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SER strikes again!
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This seems to be the first storm this winter both with legit cold and lots of moisture. Now it comes down to precip type. I think North of 85 will stay all frozen barring significant inland shifts, which seems unlikely with the depth of cold air. As always, expect an early flip to sleet and a more narrow band of ZR than global models show
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I suspect much of this is sleet not ZR. Regardless, more amped than we would like which seems to be the trend
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Always feels like this
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It's early, but I think happy hour GFS just might live up to it's name. Hanging back more through 114
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Model consensus currently has a bullseye on Richmond. I would expect that to shift as far south as Down to 85 or as far north as DC over the next few days. Should have a better feel for how things are going to play out in the next 48 hours or so I think.
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A very cold run as well, hopefully that's sleet and not zr, with temps in the mid 20s along 85
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Very closely aligned with the 0z EPS it would seem. Hopefully the 12z EPS ticks south as well, in which case N of I85 will be sitting pretty.
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The UKMET is a lot like the GFS, but slower. The result is more snowy, but I would anticipate some of what it is depicting as snow is sleet
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You will get a sleety mix sandwich and like it
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I Definitely that second piece of energy hanging back in Texas that we would prefer to be the dominant wave, that phases with the first wave. The first wave gets out ahead on the GFS and leaves behind the second
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Yep, ice storm for northern NC, some snow along the NC border
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Some improvements on 6z GFS through 135, colder, but still quite fast relative to consensus
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The morning GFS run wasn't far off from something like that, just needs to slow down and phase
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That is a high impact event all the way up the eastern seaboard
