olafminesaw
-
Posts
3,303 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by olafminesaw
-
Because it's the first model to run and addicts need their fix. Kinda like the SREF for snowstorms. I much prefer looking at the 3km version if I want my fix of complete nonsense
-
Certainly true that it's not yet aligned. But the center is under the edge of the convection and even though convective bursts don't last forever, it should help the system align. Shear is definitely lessened
-
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
-
Wow, last few frames convection really started pushing north over the LLC. May be all systems go at this point
-
You see this all the time as Typhoons recurve past Japan. They normally do ramp down pretty quick, but can bring pretty strong winds while looking pathetic on IR
-
Seems to support FL wind data. I would go 70 mph
-
Looks like there's some Saharan dust on pushing in from the South East of the circulation. Any chance it gets ingested and effects the system?
-
When's the next recon? Seems like really infrequent recon for a possible landfilling US cane
-
Late to release, the 12z UKMET ensembles:
-
yeah, a foot of rain at just about any interval is really rare for boston.
-
I'm guessing recon data will be integrated in the 0z suite?
-
Best used for sniffing out alternative solutions IMO, which means it's definitely way off base sometimes
-
It intializes way too weak. It's at 1012 mb at 11 am, while the 11 am advisory has it at 998 mb
-
Good point, although you can see how even at slow speeds, it will traverse cooler water relatively quickly
-
Quite warm SSTs. Also at the time of year when water temp is warmest. I also feel like climo favors later in the year with more of a subtropical transition. I still think a direct impact is less than 20% right now
-
Looking on the NOAA database at storms within 100 miles of it's current position, there are hardly any that made east coast landfalls. The only ones that did, north of Florida were 1933 hurricane (the strongest one) Ginger (1971) Hermine (2004) (probably the only one that could be a plausible track)
-
I was thinking the same, looking at radar. I'm wondering if once it started moving NW, it was more exposed to shear. Should be back to due north pretty soon
-
Seems to have jogged to the west over the past hour or so
-
-
In the same region that got smashed by cat 4 Matthew too
-
They don't think it be like it is, but it do. I feel like the HWRF actually had zero use other than for mature systems
-
Looks like the kind of storm that could quickly form a tight core and consolidate after come back over water
-
That color scale...
