olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The overnight models seem to be indicating the highest gusts will be cut off right around the triad area. Depends, it seems, on how much the dry air to the north is able to cut off the convection as it pushes in . If heavier rain rates are still present as the center moves past Charlotte, gusts could exceed 50 mph, otherwise they may stay in the 40s
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Pressure down at least to 988 as well. NHC nailed this one
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Recon is on its way, should be rather fascinating from a scientific perspective
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https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
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Took some digging but finally found it. Seems to be an asymmetric warm core for now
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Not exactly your classic hurricane structure...
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It's going to be wild tomorrow afternoon, legit tropical storm conditions and 55 degrees. You almost have to consider the wind chill sigh Ian
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Looks like a recon plane is scheduled to head out at 7:30
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If these winds mix down to the surface, that's no bueno
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Gotta start pulling out all the obscure Arabic names
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To be fair, Ian never once strayed outside the cone as far as landfall point (looking back at the graphics archive). I think there's a lot to be done in terms of communicating probability of different on the ground impacts. The general public has a hard time grasping what to expect.
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For sure. I think 40-50 mph is possible, but much more than that is unlikely. The current forecasts don't seem to be calling for much in the way of wind, so it may catch some by surprise, although it seems because of what happened in Florida, many are at least weather aware.
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I'm growing somewhat concerned about the wind threat across the Piedmont. While sustained winds diminish, the HHHR and the hires Nam have gusts over 60 mph for much of the region, the GFS in the 40-60 mph range, and the Euro in the 30-40 mph range. There must be some synoptic scale features at play. Usually the HRRR does a good job of picking up on these, but we may not have a clear idea until tomorrow morning what's coming our way.
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HAFS makes landfall near Charleston as a borderline cat 1
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Largest TS force wind field at this latitude since Sandy? Could push some serious water into Savannah/charleston
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I also think the dry stable air is going to mitigate the threat of winds/flooding. Fresh water and coastal flooding will be a rather big deal for coastal SC though. The 18z Euro
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Yellow is 14", white 20"
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I feel like it's pretty normal for the highest surge to be pretty far from the center. Maybe Naples is actually pretty much in the highest surge zone
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Looks like they're going in for one more pass right before landfall.
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,based on current radar trends surge may be worse in Cape Coral than Port Charlotte. Absolute highest surge may go between the two population centers.
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Based on radar, if trends continue, a landfall on Boca Grande seems likely. 8 miles or so south of the official track
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It's going to be really close. Should be there in about an hour. Plenty of time to make one last pass
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Seems to be more or less stair stepping towards the coast. More North the last few frames
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Looks like it's starting to feel the shear a bit
