olafminesaw

It may not aid in terms of preventing or delaying a changeover, but I think it helps with the duration and intensity of the initial thump. Also helps places like Atlanta substantially

Icon still south of most guidance at 18z

Pertinent notes from the MA sub:

Yeah, the uptick has more to do with eliminating outliers than anything I think. The same general idea as 6z

Yeah, definitely gotta wait for the hires NAM and even than look at soundings and make a judgement call on which way the precip type will go. Seems like this will fall more on the sleet side of the storm, especially with the dynamics (but could flip back and forth based on rates)

Surprise! Euro holding back the energy more at 78

The 12z Icon lines up pretty much with the Euro

I also feel like the temp gradient will lead to some pretty intense snowfall rates along and west of the low track, especially with those dews in place

The gefs mean keeps temps below 28 degrees for the duration in GSO. Which I think is notable, since I would expect it to under do the wedge

NAM hangs back the energy more this run. I wouldn't put to much weight too if yet, but it does continue the trend. It is South of the GFS, however

Brings to mind all the hurricanes where the SE ridge was under-modeled and the storm came south. Totally different and I'm sure the model biased are not the same, but looking at that panel it's hard not to think the storm will come South.

Popping in from the SE forum, it's wild how the fate of central NC lines up so much with the fate of this sub forum. Can't think of very many other analogs in that way, other than Jan 2000.

Legendary warm nose

If you just look at surface SLP it doesn't make much sense, but a lot of the steering influence is at 500 mb, where the door is wide open for the primary low to cut north. Not saying it's a trend that can't reverse, but we're running out of time

Lol

Yeah not much different so far. The ridging over Canada is stronger which is good. But hanging back more with the energy, which is not so good

Does the Northward trend of the trough moving through on Thursday have anything to do with the amplification trend?

RAH: The overwhelming majority of the forecast interest is obviously on the Saturday night - Monday time period, and for good reason. Previous model solutions were somewhat unclear with the GFS/GEFS/ECENS all indicating the potential for wintry precipitation for our area, while the deterministic ECMWF was the outlier in showing a system to our south with little in the way of impactful weather across NC. Today`s ensemble data and 12Z deterministic guidance has come into better agreement, albeit with a curve ball in the form of a pronounced warm nose across Coastal Plain and central Piedmont. While all the models indicate the potential for precip Saturday night through Sunday night as an initial low dives through the Midwest into the Deep South, the guidance is also showing a secondary coastal low developing Sunday morning (Miller-B style) with a pronounced warm nose from 925-850mb extending well inland Sunday afternoon. For being vastly different 12 hours ago, both the EC and GFS deterministic show 40-50kt easterly 925-850mb winds with temperatures forecast to rise to around +1C in the western Piedmont and up to around +6C across the Coastal Plain. Cold air would eventually wrap back around the system as it exits to the northeast early Monday morning, perhaps chasing the moisture out of the area in the process. At this stage of game, despite an apparent convergence of solutions with today`s 12Z deterministic guidance and suggestions of support from their ensembles, there is still a lot of uncertainty that needs to be sorted out. Precip chances continue to increase during this period, but the potential for a substantial warm nose could result in some areas that see snow, ice, rain, or a mix of all the above with this event. Much will ultimately depend on how closely the low stays to the coast and the strength/position of the surface ridge to our north. We`ll continue with the mention of rain/snow for Sunday into Monday but still too early to talk amounts or icing potential with any degree of certainty.

I've learned the key too happiness is dismissing all model runs that show "the big one" and being satisfied with 2-4" that coats everything. Unfortunately knowing the key to happiness is only half the battle. I get disappointed regardless when the clown maps don't pan out, despite knowing better.

No need to cliff jump or celebrate until 12z tomorrow at the earliest. We have a pretty good feel for the envelope and I do feel the UKMET outcome is well within it. It seems lot of the conventional wisdom about the North trend is only true maybe half the time and this still looks like A+ chance for most on this board (even if it doesn't end up working out)

Definitely a big step towards the GFS with more of a hybrid Miller A. Doesn't totally cave though, which is good for most everyone

GEFS looks Great. Less amped than the GFS, but a solid hit for all NC

Would be a nasty ice storm south of I85. That's a stout wedge

Need this to stop trending North

Gotta iron out the vort track, strength etc. before it's even worth thinking about precip type issues. Always an issue when it comes to the big ones, which is why we don't mind an EPS-like solution