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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Recon just took off for our new invest. We'll find out in a couple hours whether this is a TC, or a glorified squall line
  2. olafminesaw
  3. olafminesaw
    Finally wrapping convection around the center. Should be off to the races
  4. olafminesaw
    Looks like the core starting to organize, but may be a while before we see anything like an eyewall
  5. olafminesaw
    Convection go boom
  6. olafminesaw
    LLC racing off to the NW, now fully exposed
  7. olafminesaw
    Only six storms have passed within 50 miles of PTC 13 in the satellite era, of which, 5 became hurricanes and 2 became major hurricanes
  8. olafminesaw
    Ah CFS Snow maps. The telltale sign of a truly desperate person person
  9. olafminesaw
    It will be interesting to see the battle play out between that HAFS and the HWRF. A good test case
  10. olafminesaw
    This system is very Reminiscent of Joan in 1988. Thankfully will likely be hitting a sparsely populated area and flooding as usual, will be the main threat https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Joan–Miriam
  11. olafminesaw
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
  12. olafminesaw
    Impacts from the storm across central NC will continue through early Saturday. Heavy rainfall will lead to a threat of flash flooding, especially this afternoon into tonight. Tropical storm force wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph, with isolated higher gusts, are expected across portions of the central, southern, and northwest Piedmont, Coastal Plain, and Sandhills, with gusts to 40 mph elsewhere. In addition, an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out across the Coastal Plain today into tonight.
  13. olafminesaw
  14. olafminesaw
  15. olafminesaw
    The overnight models seem to be indicating the highest gusts will be cut off right around the triad area. Depends, it seems, on how much the dry air to the north is able to cut off the convection as it pushes in . If heavier rain rates are still present as the center moves past Charlotte, gusts could exceed 50 mph, otherwise they may stay in the 40s
  16. olafminesaw
    Pressure down at least to 988 as well. NHC nailed this one
  17. olafminesaw
    Recon is on its way, should be rather fascinating from a scientific perspective
  18. olafminesaw
    https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
  19. olafminesaw
    Took some digging but finally found it. Seems to be an asymmetric warm core for now
  20. olafminesaw
    Not exactly your classic hurricane structure...
  21. olafminesaw
    It's going to be wild tomorrow afternoon, legit tropical storm conditions and 55 degrees. You almost have to consider the wind chill sigh Ian
  22. olafminesaw
    Looks like a recon plane is scheduled to head out at 7:30
  23. olafminesaw
    If these winds mix down to the surface, that's no bueno
  24. olafminesaw
    Gotta start pulling out all the obscure Arabic names
  25. olafminesaw
    To be fair, Ian never once strayed outside the cone as far as landfall point (looking back at the graphics archive). I think there's a lot to be done in terms of communicating probability of different on the ground impacts. The general public has a hard time grasping what to expect.
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