olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Winter Storm Izzy Obs Thread
olafminesaw replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in Southeastern States
Hard to believe it will flip to sleet in a couple hours after the dewpoint dropped to 8 before onset -
Yeah, we've seen this play out on the models. A shift to the south initially has sometimes resulted in a more inland track. Just depends on how our pesky vortex to the North behaves
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If I were a betting man, I'd bet on higher sleet totals and lower qpf, leading to only .1-.2" acreation in the triad
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Hate to see the depth of the wedge become shallower, I think as the storm track has trended somewhat more inland. I'm starting to doubt that many will see more sleet than ZR, but it's kinda a coin flip at this point
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Winter Storm Izzy Obs Thread
olafminesaw replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in Southeastern States
The air that eventually will be bleeding down into NC is pretty stout:
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Storm summed up in one sounding. If this ain't sleet, it sure is close
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More or less from S to N.
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Still a nice front end thump on the HRRR, FWIW for central NC
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A lot of that qpf falls as sleet, so Greensboro might be 2" (.2 qpf) of snow followed by 2" sleet (.6 qpf) followed by .16 zr (.3 qpf-accounting for run-off). But snow/sleet depth after compaction would only be around 3"
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Good rates. One can dream the long range HRRR had any validity
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Can you spot the wedge?
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Activity will pick up. We're in the in between, where models are pretty locked in, but we're not yet now casting (radar hallucinations and hyperventilating over every HRRR run). I do think the prospect of 2" of sleet is pretty exciting TBH
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Seems based on research, that heavy sleet accumulations are rare in NC. February 1987 is a prime example, where up to 6" of sleet fell in Wake county. A very similar setup to this one too, based on the charts in this paper: https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA250184
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It's a bit confusing, but as I understand it, FV3 refers to a trial version of the model. So every time they're working on an upgrade, they'll release both the old and new versions at the same time and eventually make FV3 operational. What I assume is being discussed is the WRF FV3 that shows on pivotal weather. I believe this is a trial version (hence FV3) of a high resolution GFS model
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Our trough that will become the primary low is now over the Northern plains
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Supposed to be like the hires NAM but run off the GFS. I've found it to be straight trash
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True, although I suspect heavier bands of precip will fall as sleet. FRAM for comparison
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Looks about how I think this will shake out. Although I would cut freezing rain acreation in the jackpot zones in half
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The RGEM runs the low directly over Raleigh, lol
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Crazy how the mesos bring the zr line all the way down to Myrtle at the onset, but yet the triad flips to sleet almost immediately
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Yeah, I almost feel like the surface low being further south initially, hurts the potential for a good initial thump for those of us north of 40
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Apologies if already posted, but he's one of the best snow forecasters out there IMO
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Nasty sounding fro Raleigh. Good to finally get some clarity on precip type, with the 3km NAM coming into range
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2 days ago we would have been celebrating the placement of the ULL on that map. What went wrong? Just look at the decrease in heights. Not too shocked to see blocking fail to materialize in a La Nina year
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