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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Almost reminds me of lake effect snow showers in Pittsburgh. At least you can get decent squalls with that, but it amazes me how any given January day, there's a high chance of seeing light snow showers. Kinda takes the fun out snow.
  2. olafminesaw
    Sounding that does not inspire confidence (although much improved a few hours later). We'll see hours upon hours of flizzard conditions, with a 3-6 hour window for light to moderate accumulations
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    GFS very similar to last run. A light to moderate snowstorm for most of the sub
  5. olafminesaw
    Funny how WAA aloft disappears as soon as you need it most
  6. olafminesaw
    RGEM looks much like the 0z Euro. More suppressed than last run
  7. olafminesaw
    It's still perhaps closer to a good outcome than it appears. Small changes yield big changes in results. We really need that initial northern energy to die out so the energy in Texas can amplify
  8. olafminesaw
    Don't think the NAM will be a good run for NW areas, but we shall see. Seems to be keying in more on the first piece of energy, which doesn't get the job done
  9. olafminesaw
    It's going to be painful for those on the N and W fringes watching the precip run into a wall of dry air for hours and hours
  10. olafminesaw
    The snow in WV/Northern VA a separate wave on the back end of the initial frontal passage
  11. olafminesaw
    Better than expected. Many would take this in a heartbeat (although note that the fringes will shrink with time as the forecast gets nailed down)
  12. olafminesaw
    Seems to me a step in the right direction for the NW gang. Moves a bit towards the idea of the low continuing to develop as it progresses east
  13. olafminesaw
    Struggling to take seriously a model that spits out this:
  14. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I feel like the hr 84 NAM tends to be like... "Hey look! A storm!", When sometimes suppression makes more sense
  15. olafminesaw
    Delayed, but still gets the job done. Lots of ice for coastal areas
  16. olafminesaw
    I'm definitely worried the phase will just keep getting delayed and it will only be a storm for Wilmington to VA beach
  17. olafminesaw
    Definitely more east, but still fairly amped. Supports the continued idea of a big hit for the coastal plain
  18. olafminesaw
    Still...not totally caving.
  19. olafminesaw
    Maybe 80% chance of happening. Storm isn't really supposed to get going until mid-day, even for the more amped solutions
  20. olafminesaw
    I won't post for fear of confusion, but the Canadian drops one heckuva weenie run in a storm on the 27th
  21. olafminesaw
    Lol, the triad went from 12" to 2" of snow on the UKMET. Definitely supports the idea not only of more suppressed, but also for significant coastal impacts
  22. olafminesaw
    GEFS looks more amped through 90
  23. olafminesaw
    Seems like Rocky Mount may end up doing better than the Triad. I have a feeling that although we will have long duration and less mixing issues, dry air may reduce the max potential from playing out
  24. olafminesaw
    Ok so far we've got Euro and NAM in the amped camp; GFS, icon and RGEM in the suppressed camp, and UKMET and CMC somewhere in between
  25. olafminesaw
    The 12z GFS will be huge. Whichever direction it moves will be a big indicator of which way things are trending. I will say, I wouldn't worry too much about one run of the Euro. If nothing else, it largely rules out the possibility of over-amplification.
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