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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    TBH, we may not really know how much will fall until about 8-12 hours before the event. Mesoscale models will be key. It does seem that the door has been closed on more than 3" though
  2. olafminesaw
    Definitely a thread the needle/depend on a stronger storm to produce it's own cold kind of setup. Not exactly our bread and butter, but what else do we have to track?
  3. olafminesaw
    I agree. People knock 10:1 maps, but it's really much better for comparing run to run differences. Even so it probably will have some changeover timing issues, with how quick the front is moving through.
  4. olafminesaw
    Right, I guess that's the issue is technically the NWS forecast is correct. But it makes it look like the temp will drop to 10 in the early morning before rising to 33 in the afternoon. The only way I can think to present this better is to make the low match the high and put the little arrow indicator showing that the temp falls throughout the day. (None of this really matters, I just think it's wonky)
  5. olafminesaw
    Lol, yeah, I've noticed the Thursday night forecast has been broken all day. Or is this just how it works and is pulling the afternoon temperature based on when the cut off timeframe they set for the low temp? Either way, seems like a good way to confuse the public.
  6. olafminesaw
    In case you were wondering why this is close to record breaking December cold, check out where the air is coming from!
  7. olafminesaw
    Hard to say what ratios will be like. But the bulk of the time that moisture and cold overlap (per the GFS anyway), Is pretty much ideal for dendrite growth. As for whether they get obliterated by the wind, no clue
  8. olafminesaw
    Yeah... It's dry up there for sure
  9. olafminesaw
    Yeah, that's kinda what I'm thinking. Might get a little sketchy around Beckley/NRG, but thankfully that route sticks to fairly low elevation.
  10. olafminesaw
    Yep! Trying to drive up on Friday soooo...
  11. olafminesaw
  12. olafminesaw
    Could have a band of heavy precip that cools the column and leads to a quicker changeover. Could drop a couple inches of snow in an hour, depending on the timing of the cold with the precip.
  13. olafminesaw
    Going to be incredible waves on lake Michigan
  14. olafminesaw
    Retreating cold too. The Canadian looks intriguing though so, at least something to track I suppose
  15. olafminesaw
    Ugh, thank you. Now it's just a matter of figuring out if it's a terrible idea to tackle frozen roads with AWD. It's going to be mostly highway, (RT19/I-79) which might be okay, depending on a number of factors.
  16. olafminesaw
    Lol, the ULL rounds the corner like one of those fair rides that gives you whiplash. Probably something like that is the only way we can score in this pattern
  17. olafminesaw
    Yeah it's kinda wild. Yesterday evening the GFS had the cold front not even arriving until late afternoon/evening. Now it's showing the cold entrenched and snow almost over by dinner time.
  18. olafminesaw
    I wouldn't underestimate this beast
  19. olafminesaw
    Seems the difference is in the tilt of the trough. The Euro is much more positivity tilted, while the GFS is close to neutral
  20. olafminesaw
    Any thoughts on travel Friday afternoon/early evening? Seems temps will be in the low 20s at that time, although the timing of the front is still TBD. At what temp would you expect roads to freeze solid?
  21. olafminesaw
    Hey remember when models were spitting out way below normal temps for pretty much all of North America from Christmas to new years? Pepperidge Farms remembers.
  22. olafminesaw
    I think the Euro is slightly improved through 72
  23. olafminesaw
    Hey at least we have this to look forward to
  24. olafminesaw
    Icky
  25. olafminesaw
    The NAM looks decent to me WRT handling the energy out west. We do need this to dig quite a bit more and/or phase sooner than the GFS to have a shot at significant accumulations.
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