Jump to content

olafminesaw

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,301

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
  2. olafminesaw
    Thankful for the more reasonable rainfall totals here in the Triad in September. However, we still managed to smash the record for most number of 7"+ months in a year at 5 (Jan, may, Jul, Aug, Sep), with the previous record being 3 (5 instances). We are currently ahead of our 2018 record for rainfall and have a very good chance at a top 3 rainfall year yet again (all of the top three would be set in the last 7 years)
  3. olafminesaw
    https://x.com/james_jinnette1/status/1839625146786599282
  4. olafminesaw
    Pretty shocking that SC has surpassed GA in outages
  5. olafminesaw
    Storm of the Century vibes
  6. olafminesaw
    I mean 105 to 125 in 8-12 hours is certainly not as big a hurdle as y'all make it sound. Not to say it's going to happen. But the bottom line is a major hurricanes is likely at landfall which is not going to have a much different impact than a low end cat 4
  7. olafminesaw
    In terms of reducing the populated areas affected by 12'+surge, the current NHC track is ideal. Not a ton of populated towns East of track. ST Mark's is the potential exception as they are right on the cusp either way
  8. olafminesaw
    Hard to believe this thing is in the southern Gulf right now and will be right on top of our region 24 hours from now. Especially after Debby's crawl towards the coast
  9. olafminesaw
    Solar min doing it's work. I wonder if the storm will maintain some level of asymmetry through landfall. Large systems have a hard time mixing out dry air entirely sometimes.
  10. olafminesaw
    Have to watch these cells on the east side of the storm for quick spinups on Friday
  11. olafminesaw
    i don't know anything about this model output, but I believe it is what the NWS bases their forecast on https://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/psurge/index.php?R=CONUS&S=Helene2024&Adv=9&Ty=e10&D=agl&Ti=cum&Msg=17&Mp=Street&Z=5&Lt=34.823193&Lg=-79.693886&Help=about
  12. olafminesaw
  13. olafminesaw
    Worth noting there his a high degree of forecast error possible after landfall, in terms of track and wind, due to the complex interaction with the ULL as well as poor forecast accuracy related strength and placement of ULLs to begin with.
  14. olafminesaw
    Follow the convergence for a rough idea of where the highest impact will occur.
  15. olafminesaw
    Shrimpy West Pacifjc vibes.
  16. olafminesaw
    BTW, how appropriate a user name. This well could be NC's Joaquin!
  17. olafminesaw
    The Southern Apps are going to be to a degree ground zero regardless just from Orographic lift. As well as the convergence the mountains provide with the ULL. It's possible the "wealth" could be spread around a bit more and places like Ashville end up with less than forecast. But somewhere in the higher elevations is getting double digit rainfall. No doubt about it.
  18. olafminesaw
    The HWRF has a good handle on it's deepening
  19. olafminesaw
    Cedar key seems to be in the cross hairs for surge. Was reading about the natural sea barrier that fared well during Idelia. But that was only a 6.8 ft surge https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2023/12/01/cedar-key-hurricane-idalia-living-shoreline-storm-surge-erosion-florida-sea-grant/
  20. olafminesaw
    I think winds are a big concern for the higher elevations of the southern Apps, even if Helene is not as strong as some of the models sugguest at landfall. I am hopeful that winds will have lost their punch by the time they get to the Northern Piedmont
  21. olafminesaw
    In theory yes, but at this stage shifts to the right increase the chance for surge to be a significant threat for Eastern Florida. A landfall even as far north as Cedar key would be really bad for the Tampa area.
  22. olafminesaw
    The 6z Euro is still quite weak entering the gulf
  23. olafminesaw
    Thanks! This makes sense, early in the month the SE ridge is more likely to have influence. On models there seems to be a persistent trough off the east coast that is likely to pull the system more to the right.
  24. olafminesaw
    Until an LLC forms, I would say Climo is our best predictor of track. Aligns well with model consensus anyway
  25. olafminesaw
×
×
  • Create New...